Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Taijuan Walker
Walker has thrown extremely well in 2020, allowing only 15 runs (14 earned runs) while striking out 36 batters over 42.2 innings. He’s due for quite a bit of regression, though, as he also owns a 5.09 xFIP and a 4.98 SIERA. Walker also owns a 20.1% strikeout rate this season to go along with a 7.3% swinging-strike rate. He has played for multiple teams in 2020, although he has thrown slightly better on the road. He also boasts a 4.74 xFIP against right-handed batters this season.
Walker gets an interesting matchup against the New York Yankees tonight. They feature one of the highest team wOBAs on the slate but they also rank fifth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. Walker is a +143 underdog in a game set at 9 runs, giving the Yankees an implied team total of 5.1 runs. He’s a risky option but has flashed this season, scoring 34, 36.8,, and 21.3 fantasy points in 3 of his 8 starts. Walker’s Vegas line and matchup will keep his ownership low but his price tag doesn’t represent his upside. He’s a great tournament option on a larger slate.
Freddie Freeman
Freeman has been playing at an elite level, hitting for a .421 average with a .921 slugging percentage and a 1.453 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 9 extra-base hits (5 home runs), 18 RBIs, and 1 stolen base in those contests. Freeman is also hitting for a .371 average with a .742 slugging percentage and a 1.233 OPS against right-handed pitching this season. He enters this game with a .498 wOBA and a .371 ISO against righties in 2020, as well.
Freeman gets an elite matchup against Thomas Eshelman, who has allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .240 average with a .469 slugging percentage and a .330 wOBA in his career. Eshelman is due for regression against left-handed batters, as well. Freeman is expected to hit second in the Atlanta Braves lineup tonight. He’ll benefit from playing in Baltimore on this slate, although he’s likely to go overlooked with Matt Olson playing in the Coors tonight.
Anthony Rendon
Rendon has quietly found success in recent games, posting a .278 average with a .556 slugging percentage and a .990 OPS over his last 10 games. He recorded five extra-base hits (two home runs) and six RBIs in those games. Rendon is surprisingly only hitting for a .261 average against left-handed pitching in 2020 but he also owns a .543 slugging percentage and a .947 OPS. He has recorded a. 398 wOBA and a .283 ISO against lefties this season, as well.
Rendon gets an elite matchup against a struggling Madison Bumgarner. The latter has allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .291 average with a .722 slugging percentage and a .444 wOBA this season. He’s also given up a .242/.606/.384 line on the road in 2020. Rendon is currently expected to hit fourth in the Los Angeles Angels lineup. He’s another elite player that will go overlooked because of this being a Coors slate. Rendon can be used in all leagues but he makes an elite tournament option tonight.
DJ Stewart
Stewart continues to be one of the hottest hitters in the Majors, posting a .382 average with a 1.029 slugging percentage and a 1.504 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he owns 8 extra-base hits (7 home runs) and 12 RBIs. Stewart is also hitting for a .268 average with a .732 slugging percentage and a 1.166 OPS against right-handed pitching this season. He also brings a .473 wOBA and a .463 ISO against righties into this game.
Stewart gets a great matchup against Huascar Ynoa tonight. In his short career, Ynoa has allowed left-handed to hit for a .323 average with a .452 slugging percentage and a .395 wOBA. Stewart is expected to hit third in the Baltimore Orioles lineup and he continues to feature a ridiculous price tag. I expect him to be relatively high owned but he’s currently projected for low ownership. Regardless, he’s a player that I will be overweight on tonight.
Justin Upton
Upton is hitting for a .343 average with a .571 slugging percentage and a .982 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts four extra-base hits (two home runs) and eight RBIs in those contests. Overall, Upton is hitting for a .204 average with a .408 slugging percentage and a .658 OPS against left-handed pitching. He owns a .280 wOBA and a .204 ISO against lefties this season, as well.
Upton gets an elite matchup against Madison Bumgarner tonight. Bumgarner has already been outlined in the Anthony Rendon recommendation. Upton is only expected to hit sixth in the Los Angeles Angels lineup but he comes with a surprisingly low price tag. He’s one of the top options on this slate for that price tag.
SuperDraft
Josh VanMeter (1.85x)
VanMeter is only hitting for a .161 average with a .355 slugging percentage and a .590 OPS over his last 10 games. He does own four extra-base hits (one home run) and two RBIs in those games, though. VanMeter has been at his best against right-handed pitching throughout his career, recording a .226 average with a .403 slugging percentage and a .716 OPS. He also boasts a career .307 wOBA and a .177 ISO against righties.
VanMeter gets a great matchup against Julio Teheran tonight. Teheran has struggled against left-handed batters in limited innings this season. He’s allowing them to hit for a .278 average with a .630 slugging percentage and a .396 wOBA. VanMeter is expected to hit second in the Arizona Diamondbacks lineup tonight. Most importantly, he gets a 1.85x multiplier on SuperDraft tonight.
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