Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Jose Berrios
Berrios has seen mixed results through nine starts this season. He’s allowed 23 earned runs while striking out 55 batters over 47 innings. He owns a 4.18 xFIP and a 4.33 SIERA to go along with his 4.40 ERA. Berrios enters this game with 27.1% strikeout and 12.5% swinging-strike rates in 2020. He’s been better at home in 2020 but he found success on the road last season. The Twins ace owns a 3.59 xFIP against right-handed batters as opposed to a 4.74 xFIP against lefties this season.
Berrios gets an interesting matchup against the Chicago White Sox tonight. They rank fourth on the slate in team wOBA while also leading the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. Berrios is currently a -134 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, giving the White Sox an implied team total of 4.2 runs. Most importantly, Chicago is an offense loaded with right-handed batters and Berrios scored 27.9 fantasy points against the White Sox only two starts ago. There are clear options at the top of pitcher tonight with Berrios being the fourth option of the four highest priced pitchers. The matchup and other available options will keep his ownership low but he comes with tremendous upside tonight.
Joey Votto
Votto has been struggling recently but he boasts a .354 average with a .677 slugging percentage and a 1.145 OPS through 19 home games. He owns 9 extra-base hits (6 home runs) and 12 RBIs in Cincinnati, as well. Votto was at his best against right-handed pitching in 2019, posting a .268 average with a .453 slugging percentage and a .814 OPS. He also ended last season with .346 wOBA and .185 ISO against righties.
Votto gets a great matchup against Cody Ponce tonight. He has only pitched limited innings this season but he’s allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .222 average with a .593 slugging percentage and a .365 wOBA. He’s also given up a .243/.540/.349 line on the road. The sample size is small but Ponce has struggled in most situations this season. Votto is hitting third in the Cincinnati Reds lineup tonight. He’ll likely be low owned because this game only features seven innings but you’re going to have to take some chances on this slate.
Eddie Rosario
Rosario is hitting for a .300 average with a .575 slugging percentage and a .908 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he has recorded five extra-base hits (three home runs) and nine RBIs. Rosario posted a .274 average with a .518 slugging percentage and a .813 OPS against right-handed pitching last season. He also recorded a .331 wOBA and a .244 ISO against righties in 2019.
Rosario gets a great matchup against Dylan Cease tonight. Cease has allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .245 average with a .500 slugging percentage and a .352 wOBA this season. He has thrown well at home but it due for massive regression in Chicago. Rosario is dealing with an injury but is currently expected to hit fifth in the Minnesota Twins lineup. If he’s starting tonight, he makes an outstanding option.
SuperDraft
DJ Stewart (1.8x)
Stewart is one of the hottest hitters in the MLB, as he owns a .367 average with a 1.000 slugging percentage and a 1.486 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts seven extra-base hits (six home runs) and eight RBIs in those games. Stewart has played in limited games this season but owns a .250 average with a .694 slugging percentage and a 1.132 OPS against right-handed pitching. He also owns a .463 wOBA and a .444 ISO against righties.
Stewart gets a matchup against Touki Toussaint who has allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .279 average with a .507 slugging percentage and a .391 wOBA throughout his career. Stewart is expected to hit third in the Baltimore Orioles lineup tonight. Somehow, he still boasts a 1.8x multiplier on SuperDraft but he’s a player that tends to fly under the radar on a nightly basis.
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