Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Justus Sheffield
Sheffield has quietly found success this season, striking out 35 batters over 37.1 innings while allowing 19 runs (18 earned runs). His 4.34 ERA is backed by a 4.12 xFIP and a 4.42 SIERA. He also boasts 21.9% strikeout and 9.1 swinging-strike rates in 2020. Sheffield has been better at home this season, as his xFIP balloons to 5.13 on the road but that has come from limited innings and a pair of matchups against the Los Angeles Angels. He has looked great against left-handed batters this season, holding them to a 3.37 xFIP with a 28.6% strikeout rate.
Sheffield gets a great matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have struggled quite a bit against left-handed pitching in 2020. They currently rank third on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat while also ranking third last in team wOBA. Sheffield is a +141 underdog in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving the Diamondbacks an implied team total of 4.8 runs tonight. Sheffield has flashed upside this season, as well, scoring 29.1 fantasy points against the Colorado Rockies. He’ll go overlooked with Zac Gallen on the slate and Zach Plesac only $300 more expensive. Sheffield makes a great pivot in tournaments, though, especially in this matchup.
Hunter Dozier
Dozier has seen mixed results in recent games, posting a .250 average with a .375 slugging percentage and a .677 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts two extra-base hits (one home run), two RBIs, and one stolen base in those games. Dozier performed well against right-handed pitching in 2019, recording a .279 average with a .515 slugging percentage and a .856 OPS. He ended last season with a .355 wOBA and a .236 ISO against righties, as well.
Dozier gets an elite matchup against Trevor Williams tonight. Williams struggled against left-handed batters in 2019 but has allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .318 average with a .730 slugging percentage and a .454 wOBA this season. Dozier is expected to hit fourth in the Kansas City Royals lineup. He’s surprisingly cheap tonight and makes an elite tournament option against Williams.
Tim Anderson
Anderson continues to play at an elite level, hitting for a .341 average with a .463 slugging percentage and a .868 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns three extra-base hits (one home run), four RBIs, and two stolen bases in those games. Anderson has been unstoppable against left-handed pitching in 2020, posting a .513 average with a 1.179 slugging percentage and a .667 ISO. He also possesses a .692 wOBA and a .667 ISO against lefties this season.
Anderson will face off against Michael Fulmer at first but Daniel Norris will play the role of the long reliever in this game. Norris allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .279 average with a .471 slugging percentage and a .333 wOBA last season. He gave up a .280/.458/.333 line on the road in 2019, as well. Anderson will continue to lead off for the Chicago White Sox. He’s expensive enough that he won’t be high-owned on a Coors slate but he makes an elite tournament option tonight.
A.J. Pollock
Pollock is hitting for a .333 average with a .571 slugging percentage and a .920 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he boasts four extra-base hits (three home runs) and five RBIs. Pollock has recorded a .357 average with a .691 slugging percentage and a 1.054 OPS against left-handed pitching this season. He has also posted a .425 wOBA and a .333 ISO against lefties in 2020.
Pollock gets a tough matchup against Framber Valdez tonight. He has held right-handed batters to a .250 average with a .351 slugging percentage and a .290 wOBA in 2020. He has given up a .275/.385/.305 line to his opponents on the road this season, though. Pollock is expected to hit third in the Los Angeles Dodgers offense. He’ll go overlooked in this game but his price tag is far too cheap for how well he has been playing, even in a tough matchup tonight.
Victor Reyes
Reyes continues to find success, as he’s hitting for a .324 average with a .405 slugging percentage and a .764 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns one home run, two RBIs, and one stolen base over that span. Reyes has posted a .291 average with a .479 slugging percentage and a .781 OPS against right-handed pitching in 2020. He boasts a .330 wOBA and a .188 ISO against righties this season, as well.
Reyes gets a great matchup against Reynaldo Lopez, who allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .290 average with a .493 slugging percentage and a .364 wOBA in 2019. Reyes is expected to lead off once again for the Detroit Tigers. He’s a player that never garners much ownership, especially at his price tag tonight. He has found plenty of success, though, and can continue that in this matchup.
SuperDraft
Adam Frazier (1.6x)
Frazier owns a .313 average with a .344 slugging percentage and a .749 OPS over his last 10 games. He only posted one extra-base hit and two RBIs in those games, as well. Frazier found quite a bit of success against right-handed pitching last season, recording a .285 average with a .435 slugging percentage and a .781 OPS. He also ended 2019 with a .331 wOBA and a .151 ISO against righties.
Frazier gets an interesting matchup against Carlos Hernandez tonight. Hernandez has thrown well in limited innings in the MLB but is due for quite a bit of regression. He also struggled at times in his minor league career. Frazier is a player that can take advantage of this matchup and he gets added upside because of his 1.6x multiplier on SuperDraft tonight.
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