Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Yusei Kikuchi
Kikuchi has seen mixed results through 6 starts, allowing 18 earned runs while striking out 34 batters over 31 innings. He’s due for positive regression, though, as his 5.23 ERA sits well above his 3.09 xFIP and 3.66 SIERA. He also boasts upside through 27.4% strikeout and 11.9% swinging-strike rates. Kikuchi has been better at home in 2020 but still owns a 3.39 xFIP in limited road innings. As is the case for most left-handed pitchers, he has found more success against left-handed batters this season, recording an elite 1.86 xFIP against them.
Kikuchi gets an elite matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have struggled against left-handed pitching. They currently rank second on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat while also ranking in the bottom-three in team wOBA. Kikuchi is a -107 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, giving the Diamondbacks an implied team total of 4.5 runs. Although Kikuchi’s overall success has been moderate on paper in 2020, he’s still often regarded for his 2019 struggles. He boasts tremendous upside, though, scoring 28.3 and 29.1 fantasy points in a pair of his starts this season. Kikuchi has struggled at times against elite offenses but he gets one of his best matchups on the slate tonight and will go overlooked in favor of Caleb Smith as a spend-down option at pitcher.
Luis Urias
Urias has found some success in recent games, hitting for a .270 average with a .324 slugging percentage and a .666 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns two extra-base hits, seven RBIs, and one stolen base over that span. Urias has been elite against left-handed pitching throughout his career, posting a .378 average with a .567 slugging percentage and a .977 OPS. He also owns a .414 wOBA and a .189 ISO against lefties.
Urias gets a plus matchup against Jon Lester tonight. Lester has struggled against right-handed batters in 2020, allowing them to hit for a .277 average with a .527 slugging percentage and a .362 wOBA. Urias is currently expected to hit seventh in the Milwaukee Brewers lineup but he was a leadoff option earlier in the season. He’ll gain value if he moves up in the lineup but he can be considered this week regardless.
Erik Gonzalez
Gonzalez has been playing at a high level, posting a .333 average with a .538 slugging percentage and a .921 OPS over his last 10 games. He recorded five extra-base hits (one home runs) and six RBIs in those contests. Gonzalez has dominated left-handed pitching in 2020, as he’s hitting for a .379 average with a .759 slugging percentage and a 1.178 OPS. He also owns a .484 wOBA and a .379 ISO against lefties this season.
Gonzalez gets a matchup against Kris Bubic, who has been a reverse splits pitcher early in his MLB career. Still, he’s allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .248 average with a .446 slugging percentage and a .321 wOBA. Gonzalez is expected to lead off for the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight. He’s an extremely cheap option that will go overlooked because of Pittsburgh’s offensive struggles but he comes with plenty of upside in this particular matchup.
Ramon Laureano
Laureano is hitting for a .278 average with a .528 slugging percentage and a .869 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he owns five extra-base hits (two home runs) and six RBIs. Laureano quietly owns a .275 average with a .489 slugging percentage and a .837 OPS throughout his career. He boasts a .353 wOBA and a .214 ISO against righties in his career, as well.
Laureano gets a great matchup against Jordan Lyles, who will be the Texas Rangers long reliever tonight. Lyles has struggled in 2020, allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .333 average with a .623 slugging percentage and a .421 wOBA. Laureano is expected to hit third in the Oakland A’s lineup tonight. He has found more success on the road this season. While I don’t love the stadium tonight, the matchup is far too good. Laureano makes a great tournament option.
Trent Grisham
Grisham has seen mixed results over his last 10 games, recording a .333 average with a .361 slugging percentage and a .736 OPS. He boasts one extra-base hit, two RBIs, and three stolen bases in those games. Grisham owns a .248 average with a .460 slugging percentage and a .809 OPS against right-handed pitching throughout his career. He possesses a .345 wOBA and a .212 ISO against righties, as well.
Grisham gets a great matchup against Johnny Cueto, who is allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .262 average with a .464 slugging percentage and a .353 wOBA this season. Grisham is expected to lead off for the San Diego Padres. He boasts a great combination of speed and power but he’ll go overlooked because this is a Coors slate. He’s a great tournament option, though.
SuperDraft
Ryan McBroom (1.85x)
McBroom has been ice cold recently, posting a .105 average with a .263 slugging percentage and a .413 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns only one home run and one RBI in those games. McBroom has posted a .292 average with a .563 slugging percentage and a .921 OPS against left-handed pitching throughout his career. He also owns a career .385 wOBA and a .271 ISO against lefties.
McBroom gets a great matchup against Steven Brault tonight. Brault struggled against right-handed batters in 2019, allowing them to hit for a .270 average with a .454 slugging percentage and a .351 wOBA. McBroom is currently expected to hit fifth in the Kansas City Royals lineup. He’s a home run threat against left-handed pitching and boasts a 1.85x multiplier on SuperDraft. He certainly comes with risk but the reward is there, as well.
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