Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Ian Anderson
Anderson looked outstanding in his first MLB start, allowing only one run while striking out six batters over six innings. His xFIP hovered around 3.00 for the most part, excluding a terrible 5.93 xFIP in Triple-A. Anderson’s strikeout rate sat around 30% for the majority of his minor league career, although it dipped to 22.1% in five Triple-A starts. His swinging-strike rates have matched his strikeouts, as well, suggesting he can find strikeout potential at the MLB level.
Anderson gets a plus matchup against the Boston Red Sox tonight. They rank seventh on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat while also ranking third last in team wOBA. Anderson is a -161 favorite in a game set at 10 runs, giving the Red Sox an implied team total of only 4.4 runs tonight. He posted 25.1 fantasy points in his MLB debut. He was a bit lucky throughout that game but has flashed the potential to find success in the MLB. He is the Atlanta Braves’ third-best prospect in 2020. Anderson certainly comes with risk and will have his struggles early in his MLB career, but he’s extremely cheap and makes an elite tournament option on this slate.
Dominic Smith
Smith has caught fire recently, posting a .355 average with a .581 slugging percentage and a .997 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns five extra-base hits (one home run) and six RBIs over that span. Throughout his career, Smith is hitting for a .256 average with a .507 slugging percentage and a .817 OPS against right-handed pitching. He boasts a .343 wOBA with a .252 ISO against righties in his career, as well.
Smith gets a plus matchup against Asher Wojciechowski tonight. Wojciechowski struggled against left-handed batters last season, allowing them to hit for a .253 average with a .540 slugging percentage and a .367 wOBA. He also gave up a .255/.503/.359 line in Baltimore. Smith is expected to hit fourth for the New York Mets tonight. He’s a powerful player that will benefit from playing in one of the more hitter-friendly stadiums in the MLB. He’ll also benefit from an elite matchup but is likely to go overlooked on this slate. He’s an outstanding tournament option tonight.
Yoshi Tsutsugo
Tsutsugo has been struggling recently, as he’s hitting for a .200 average with a .567 slugging percentage and a .918 OPS over his last 10 games. He posted five extra-base hits (three home runs) and six RBIs in those contests. Early in his career, he’s only hitting .156 with a .375 slugging percentage and a .679 OPS against right-handed pitching. He owns a .300 wOBA and a .219 ISO against righties, and I expect him to see positive regression against right-handed pitching as he sees more at-bats.
Tsutsugo gets a great matchup against Masahiro Tanaka, who allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .285 average with a .508 slugging percentage and a .349 wOBA in 2019. Tsutsugo is expected to hit fourth in the Tampa Bay Rays lineup tonight. He certainly comes with risk but he’s a powerful option that will benefit from playing in a hitter-friendly stadium tonight. He’s far too cheap for his upside on this slate.
Michael Brantley
Brantley has cooled off over his last 10 games, posting a .189 average with a .324 slugging percentage and a .593 OPS over that span. He owns five extra-base hits and three RBIs in those games, as well. Brantley was dominant against right-handed pitching in 2019, recording a .323 average with a .549 slugging percentage and a .928 OPS. He also ended 2019 with a .385 wOBA and a .226 ISO against righties.
Brantley gets a matchup against Jordan Lyles, who is expected to play the long reliever role for the Texas Rangers tonight. Lyles allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .277 average with a .555 slugging percentage and a .382 wOBA in 2019. He has also been one of the worst pitchers in the MLB in 2020. Brantley is expected to hit third in the Houston Astros lineup tonight. They are an offense that continues to go overlooked in 2020, and Brantley makes a great tournament option tonight.
Michael Conforto
Conforto continues to find success, recording a .324 average with a .559 slugging percentage and a .937 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts four extra-base hits (two home runs), six RBIs, and one stolen base over that span. Last season, Conforto posted a .264 average with a .544 slugging percentage and a .926 OPS against right-handed pitching. He owned a .382 wOBA and a .280 ISO against righties in 2019, as well.
Conforto gets a great matchup against Asher Wojciechowski, who has already been outlined in the Dominic Smith recommendation. Conforto is expected to hit second in the New York Mets lineup. He’s an option that comes with tremendous upside, especially in this matchup. The Mets are an elite tournament stack on this slate, and Conforto can be used as a one-off.
SuperDraft
Jason Heyward (1.55x)
Heyward has found continued success in 2020. He’s hitting for a .286 average with a .750 slugging percentage and a 1.194 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he owns six extra-base hits (three home runs) and four RBIs. Heyward posted a .264 average with a .466 slugging percentage and a .831 OPS against right-handed pitching in 2019. He also recorded a .350 wOBA and a .202 ISO against righties last season.
Heyward gets a great matchup against Chad Kuhl, who allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .265 average with a .519 slugging percentage and a .365 wOBA in his last full season. Heyward is only expected to hit seventh in the Chicago Cubs lineup but he comes with a 1.55x multiplier on SuperDraft. He’s a great tournament option in a plus matchup tonight.
Follow Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
