Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
David Peterson
Peterson has found success early in his MLB career, holding his opponents to 5 earned runs while striking out 11 batters over 11.2 innings. His 3.86 ERA is backed by a 3.58 xFIP and a 3.75 SIERA. Peterson has also posted a 23.4% strikeout rate to go along with a 10.9% swinging-strike rate. He has found more success against left-handed batters in 2020, although his peripheral stats suggest has been a better option against right-handed batters early in his career.
Peterson gets an elite matchup against the Miami Marlins tonight. They lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat by a wide margin. They also rank third last on the slate in team wOBA. Peterson is a -169 favorite in a game set at 9 runs tonight, giving the Marlins an implied team total of only 3.9 runs. Normally, he’d be considered a chalky option, but there are a few elite pitching options on this slate. Peterson could be the one that fantasy players trust the least, allowing his ownership to drop. He also hasn’t flashed great upside early in his career, although he makes a great tournament option tonight.
Curt Casali
Casali has struggled through eight games this season. He’s only hitting for a .167 average with a .458 slugging percentage and a .769 OPS. Casali owns three home runs and two RBIs this season, as well. He has been at his best against left-handed pitching throughout his career, recording a .258 average with a .447 slugging percentage, .792 OPS, and .189 ISO. He owns .049 wOBA and .018 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching in his career, as well.
Casali gets a great matchup against Brett Anderson tonight. He struggled against right-handed batters last season, allowing them to hit for a .280 average with a .441 slugging percentage and a .325 wOBA. Casali is a cheap catching option, who is hitting sixth in the Cincinnati Reds lineup. He was owned at nearly 20% yesterday before going hitless in five at-bats. He’s in a similar spot tonight, though, and we’re likely to get him at significantly lower ownership. He’s a powerful option for his position, making him an elite tournament option.
Nolan Arenado
Arenado has been ice cold to start the season, hitting for a .204 average with a .388 slugging percentage and a .673 OPS through 13 games. He has posted three home runs and five RBIs this season. Arenado was an elite option against left-handed pitching last season. He ended 2019 with a .315 average, .611 slugging percentage, 1.027 OPS, and .296 ISO against lefties. He recorded .034 wOBA and .038 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching last season.
Arenado will face off against Nick Margevicius tonight. Margevicius has been a reverse splits pitcher in his career, but he’s still allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .262 average with a .458 slugging percentage and a .336 wOBA. Arenado will hit fourth in the Colorado Rockies lineup tonight, and he’s likely to go overlooked cause he’s playing outside of Coors. This is a matchup he can take advantage of, though.
Trent Grisham
Grisham continues to find success for the San Diego Padres. He’s hitting .255 with a .569 slugging percentage and a .946 OPS through 14 games. He also owns seven extra-base hits (four home runs), seven RBIs, and three stolen bases this season. Grisham has been best against right-handed pitching, posting a .245 average with a .479 slugging percentage, .832 OPS, and .233 ISO in his career. He owns .079 wOBA and .097 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
Grisham gets a great matchup against Merrill Kelly tonight. Kelly struggled against left-handed batters in 2019, allowing them to hit for a .274 average with a .431 slugging percentage and a .325 wOBA. HE also allowed a .268/.473/.342 line on the road in 2019. Grisham is expected to hit second for the San Diego Padres, and he comes with a surprisingly low price tag. He has a number of ways to score fantasy points and he’s an outstanding tournament option on this slate.
Justin Upton
Upton is another player that has underperformed early this season, hitting for a 109 average with a .239 slugging percentage and a .431 OPS. He has posted 2 home runs and 5 RBIs in 13 games. Upton has been better against left-handed pitching throughout his career, posting a .260 average with a .489 slugging percentage, .849 OPS, and .229 ISO against lefties. He owns .014 wOBA and .026 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching, as well.
Upton gets a plus matchup against Kolby Allard. Allard allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .275 average with a .397 slugging percentage and a .316 wOBA last season. Upton is expected to hit fourth in the Los Angeles Angels lineup. He’s a risky player that comes with tremendous upside. He’s reasonably priced on this slate and can be used in tournaments tonight.
SuperDraft
J.P. Crawford (1.55x)
Crawford has found early success in 2020, hitting for a .280 average with a .380 slugging percentage and a .790 OPS. He owns 3 extra-base hits, 4 RBIs, and 3 stolen bases through 14 games. Crawford was at his best against right-handed pitching in 2019, posting a .255 average with a .456 slugging percentage, .789 OPS, and .201 ISO against righties. He owned .117 wOBA and .182 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching in 2019, as well.
Crawford gets a matchup against Ryan Castellani, who will be making his MLB debut tonight. He isn’t likely to find a ton of success early in his career, though, as he posted a 5.14 xFIP in Double-A in 2018 followed by a 6.26 xFIP in Triple-A in 2019. Crawford is expected to lead off for the Seattle Mariners tonight. He gets a 1.55x multiplier on SuperDraft, making him an outstanding option at shortstop, where most will likely play Trevor Story.
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