Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Nate Pearson
Pearson made his MLB debut against the Washington Nationals, shutting them out over five innings to go along with five strikeouts. He posted a 3.25 xFIP in that game, as well. Pearson saw a surprising 26.3% strikeout rate in that game but that it is backed by a tremendous 18.7% swinging-strike rate. While that’s likely to drop as he throws more innings, it’s clear the ninth-best prospect in the minors has plenty of upside in the MLB.
Pearson gets a matchup against the Atlanta Braves, who rank as an average team on this slate in terms of strikeouts per at-bat while ranking slightly above average in team wOBA. Pearson is a +105 underdog in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving the Braves an implied team total of 4.9 runs tonight. He’s a young player that will see plenty of ups and downs early in his career, but it won’t be long before he’s priced significantly higher than he is at the moment. The matchup and Vegas line will keep his ownership down, but I expect Toronto to extend his leash a bit tonight, making him an outstanding tournament option on somewhat of a smaller slate.
Francisco Cervelli
Cervelli has only played in 4 games this season, hitting for a .143 average with a .357 slugging percentage and a .607 OPS. He owns one home run with one RBI. Cervelli struggled in 2019 but has been at his best against left-handed pitching throughout his career. He owns a .285 average with a .406 slugging percentage, .787 OPS, and .120 ISO. He also boasts .027 wOBA and .010 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching throughout his career.
Cervelli gets a great matchup against Wade LeBlanc tonight. LeBlanc struggled against both sides of the plate in 2019, allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .296 average with a .516 slugging percentage and a .356 wOBA. Cervelli is currently expected to hit seventh in the Miami Marlins lineup tonight. He isn’t a punt option at catcher, which will keep his ownership down, but he comes with plenty of upside for a reasonable price tag. He will also be hitting in an offense that should find plenty of success in this matchup.
Scott Kingery
Kingery has been ice cold for the Philadelphia Phillies to start the season. He owns a .100 average without any extra-base hits through six games. Kingery was dominant against left-handed pitching last season, though, posting a .293 average with a .561 slugging percentage, .879 OPS, and .268 ISO. Overall, he posted .038 wOBA and .071 ISO differentials against lefties.
Kingery gets a matchup against Jordan Montgomery tonight. The latter struggled against right-handed batters throughout his career, allowing them to hit for a .254 average with a .403 slugging percentage and a .310 wOBA. Kingery is expected to hit seventh in the Phillies lineup, which will keep his ownership down. They feature a 4.6 implied run total tonight, and this is a great spot for Kingery to work his way out of this slump.
Luis Robert
Robert was owned around 5% last night, and I’m going back to the well. He’s hitting for a .354 average with a .542 slugging percentage and a .957 OPS this season. He owns 5 extra-base hits (2 home runs), 6 RBIs, and 4 stolen bases through 12 games. It’s early in his career but all of Roberts’ power has come against right-handed pitching. He currently boasts a .341 average with a .561 slugging percentage, .961 OPS, and .220 ISO against righties.
Robert gets an interesting matchup against Josh Lindblom, who has thrown in the KBO during the last two seasons. Lindblom has been better against right-handed batters in his MLB career. They’re hitting for a .220 average with a .348 slugging percentage and a .280 wOBA. Robert is expected to lead off for the Chicago White Sox, and he can score fantasy points with his power or speed. Normally, I’d shy away from this type of matchup, but Robert is on a different level. If you can get him low owned in a reasonable matchup, he makes an outstanding tournament option.
Jason Heyward
Heyward has seen mixed results through 10 games this season. He’s hitting for a .206 average with a .294 slugging percentage and a .544 OPS. He owns 1 home run and 5 RBIs in 34 at-bats. Heyward found plenty of success against righties last season, though, posting a .264 average with a .466 slugging percentage, .831 OPS, and .202 ISO. He recorded .108 wOBA and .113 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching last season.
Heyward gets a great matchup against Brad Keller tonight. In 2019, Keller allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .251 average with a .370 slugging percentage and a .314 wOBA. Heyward is expected to hit sixth in the Chicago Cubs lineup that comes with tremendous upside throughout. He is likely to have plenty of opportunities to score fantasy points tonight, and he’s absurdly cheap on this slate.
SuperDraft
Jesus Aguilar (1.7x)
Aguilar is only hitting .190 this season but he owns a .619 slugging percentage and a .869 OPS. He posted three home runs and five RBIs through his first six games. Aguilar has also found success against left-handed pitching throughout his career, recording a .265 average with a .455 slugging percentage, .807 OPS, and .343 wOBA. He has been a bit more consistent against lefties, although he’s more powerful against righties.
Aguilar gets a great matchup against Wade LeBlanc, who has already been outlined in the Francisco Cervelli recommendation. Aguilar is expected to hit third for the Miami Marlins tonight. He isn’t an overly safe option, but getting a 1.7x multiplier for someone with his power turns him into an elite tournament option on SuperDraft.
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