Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Tejay Antone
Antone made his MLB debut against the Chicago Cubs. He allowed one run while striking out five batters over 4.1 innings. He reached 69 pitches, recording a 3.71 xFIP and a 2.65 SIERA. Surprisingly, Antone’s strikeout rate sat at 29.4% while his swinging strike rate was only 5.8%. We can expect that rate to drop significantly as he throws more innings, but the ground ball pitcher has other ways to get outs.
Antone gets a matchup against the Cleveland Indians, who rank seventh on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat and fourth last in team wOBA. Cleveland has struggled to produce early this season and those struggles could continue tonight. Antone isn’t a dominant pitcher by any means and he’s a +147 underdog in a game set at 8.5 runs. Cleveland features an implied team total of 4.8 runs. With that being said, Antone is the minimum price on DraftKings and doesn’t need many fantasy points to exceed value.
Josh Bell
Bell has struggled early this season, hitting for a .171 average with a .244 slugging percentage and a .430 OPS. He owns only 1 extra-base hit and 2 RBIs through 11 games. Bell dominated right-handed pitching last season, posting a .297 average with a .615 slugging percentage, 1.002 OPS, and .318 ISO against righties. He also recorded .087 wOBA and .094 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching in 2019.
Bell gets a solid matchup against Randy Dobnak tonight. Dobnak was a reverse-splits pitcher last season, holding left-handed batters to a .197 average with a .239 slugging percentage and a .215 wOBA. He’s due for regression against lefties, though, and that has seemingly begun already. Bell is hitting third in the Pittsburgh Pirates lineup, and he comes with tremendous upside in a matchup that he’s likely to go overlooked in.
Nico Hoerner
Hoerner has found some success early in the 2020 season. He’s hitting for a .269 average with a .308 slugging percentage and a .641 OPS. He also owns one extra-base hits and five RBIs through nine games. Hoerner has limited games in the Majors, but he has found more success against left-handed pitching. He owns a .316 average with a .474 slugging percentage, .837 OPS, and .158 ISO in his career against lefties. He boasts ..063 wOBA and .040 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching, as well.
Hoerner gets a great matchup against Kris Bubic tonight. Bubic got lucky in his first start, but still struggled quite a bit. He doesn’t project as an MLB pitcher this early in his career, and his lack of variety as a pitcher will work in Hoerner’s favor. Hoerner is expected to hit seventh in the Chicago Cubs lineup, and I expect him to go overlooked in favor of some of their more powerful options. He’s a low owned way to get what should be one of the best offenses on the slate tonight.
Luis Robert
Robert was one of the best prospects in the MLB and he’s showing why. He’s hitting .364 with a .568 slugging percentage and a .997 OPS through 11 games. He also owns five extra-base hits, six RBIs, and four stolen bases in those contests. Robert has found success against both left- and right-handed pitching this season. He’s too early in his career to tell but there is a very real chance he finds success against either handedness throughout his career.
Robert gets a tough matchup against Adrian Houser, who found plenty of success against right-handed batters in 2019. He held them to a .217 average with a .343 slugging percentage and a .265 wOBA. Robert is still leading off for the Chicago White Sox, though, and he has multiple ways to score fantasy points. It’s a bit surprising that he’s projected for low ownership and I’ll always take a shot at a great hitter that can score fantasy points with speed or power that is going overlooked.
Jake Cave
Cave has started the season ice cold. He’s only hitting .176 with a .353 slugging percentage and a .686 OPS thus far. He owns one home run and six RBIs through five games. He has scored fantasy points in each of his five games, though. Cave has been his best throughout his career against right-handed pitching. He’s hitting for a .272 average with a .479 slugging percentage, .826 OPS, and .206 ISO against righties. Cave also boasts .063 wOBA and .014 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching throughout his career.
Cave gets an elite matchup against Trevor Williams, who struggled mightily against left-handed batters in 2019. He allowed them to hit for a .335 average with a .561 slugging percentage and a .393 wOBA. Cave is hitting fifth in the Minnesota lineup, suggesting he’ll see plenty of opportunities to score fantasy points. The Twins could feature some ownership tonight, but Cave is an option that could go overlooked because of his slow start.
SuperDraft
Steven Souza Jr. (1.9x)
Souza is another ice-cold Cubs bat that can be considered tonight. Through 4 games, he’s hitting .083 with a .167 slugging percentage and a .381 OPS. He owns one extra-base hit, two RBIs, and one stolen base. In his last season, Souza hit for a .244 average with a .453 slugging percentage, .776 OPS, and .209 ISO against left-handed pitching. He owns .053 wOBA and .093 ISO differentials against lefties.
Souza gets a plus matchup against Kris Bubic, who has already been outlined in the Nico Hoerner recommendation. Souza is expected to hit fifth in the Chicago Cubs lineup. He gets a 1.9x multiplier on SuperDraft and comes with tremendous upside in this matchup.
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