Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Lance Lynn
Lynn has looked outstanding this season, allowing only 3 hits without any earned runs over 12 innings. He also posted 17 strikeouts in those games. Lynn’s numbers are backed by a 3.34 xFIP and 11.4% swinging-strike rate. He was better on the road in 2019 where his xFIP dipped to 3.65 and his strikeout rate increased to 31.1%. He was elite against right-handed batters in 2019, as well, posting a 2.93 xFIP against them.
Lynn gets a matchup against the Oakland A’s tonight. They rank fifth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat and third last in team wOBA. Lynn is a +135 underdog in a game set at 7.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied team total of 4.2 runs. Oakland utilizes a number of right-handed batters, allowing Lynn to work toward his strengths. He’s an outstanding option who is going overlooked for cheaper options on this slate.
Howie Kendrick
Kendrick has struggled through five games this season. He’s hitting only .125 with a .188 slugging percentage and a .410 OPS. Kendrick dominated left-handed pitching in 2019, though, posting a .376 average with a .615 slugging percentage, 1.036 OPS, and .239 ISO. He ended last season with .045 wOBA and .018 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching.
Kendrick gets a great matchup against Steven Matz in Washington. Matz was a reverse splits pitcher last season, but still allowed righties to hit for a .258 average with a .452 slugging percentage and a .321 wOBA. More importantly, he allowed a .310/.581/.387 line to right-handed batters outside of New York. Kendrick is expected to hit third in the Washington Nationals lineup tonight. His price tag is depleted and he’ll go overlooked because of his recent struggles and the other spots on this slate. He makes an outstanding tournament option, though.
Alex Bregman
Bregman has been struggling early, but he has still found success in terms of fantasy. He’s hitting .211 with a .421 slugging percentage and a .754 OPS. He owns four extra-base hits (two home runs) and seven RBIs in nine games. Bregman was elite against left-handed pitching in 2019, hitting .350 with a .742 slugging percentage 1.186 OPS, and .393 ISO. He posted .076 wOBA and .137 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching, as well.
Bregman gets a matchup against Madison Bumgarner, who has lost quite a bit of velocity this season. Bumgarner was also at his worst against right-handed batters in 2019. He allowed them to hit for a .258 average with a .456 slugging percentage and a .318 wOBA. Bregman is expected to hit third in the Houston Astros lineup tonight. With most paying up for the Coors bats, it’s unlikely Bregman gets a ton of ownership. He’s an outstanding tournament option anytime we can get him low-owned against a left-handed pitcher.
Joc Pederson
Pederson has seen mixed results early this season, hitting .240 with a .360 slugging percentage and a .705 OPS. He owns one home run, two RBIs, and one stolen base through eight games. Pederson was far more consistent and more powerful against right-handed pitching last season. He hit .252 with a .571 slugging percentage, .920 OPS, and .319 ISO against righties in 2019. He also recorded .158 wOBA and .278 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching last season.
Pederson gets a tough matchup against Dinelson Lamet tonight. He has struggled more against left-handed batters throughout his career, allowing them to hit for a .245 average with a .448 slugging percentage and a .337 wOBA. Pederson is expected to lead off for the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight. He won’t feature a ton of ownership because of his matchup, but he comes with more than enough power to make an outstanding tournament option on this slate.
Trent Grisham
Grisham scored 19 fantasy points for us last night and I’m going back to the well tonight. He’s hitting .293 with a .683 slugging percentage and a 1.079 OPS through 11 games. He also owns seven extra-base hits (four home runs) seven RBIs, and two stolen bases this season. Grisham has been at his best against right-handed pitching posting a .253 average with a .500 slugging percentage, .855 OPS, and .247 ISO against righties throughout his career. He also enters this game with .081 wOBA and .107 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
Grisham gets an interesting matchup against Dustin May tonight. He has found success early in his career but is still allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .368 average with a .485 slugging percentage and a .385 wOBA. Grisham is expected to hit second for the San Diego Padres and he comes with a number of ways to score fantasy points. This is seen as a bad matchup on paper, which will keep Grisham’s ownership down, but he makes an elite tournament option once again tonight.
SuperDraft
Jesus Aguilar (1.75x)
Aguilar has only played in 3 games this season, hitting .250 with a .750 slugging percentage and a 1.107 OPS. He boasts two home runs and three RBIs in those games. Aguilar has performed well against left-handed pitching in his career, posting a .267 average with a .459 slugging percentage, .813 OPS, and .192 ISO. He owns a career .346 wOBA against lefties, as well.
Aguilar gets a plus matchup against John Means tonight. Means struggled against right-handed batters last season, allowing them to hit for a .249 average with a .443 slugging percentage and a .314 wOBA. Aguilar is expected to hit fourth in the Miami Marlins offense. He’ll benefit from playing in Baltimore’s hitter-friendly stadium, and a 1.75x multiplier is elite for a player with Aguilar’s home run potential tonight.
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