Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Tyler Glasnow
Glasnow has struggled early this season, allowing 16 earned runs over 28 innings, although he boasts 48 strikeouts in those games, as well. He’s due for positive regression, as his 5.14 ERA sits significantly higher than his 2.75 xFIP and 3.17 SIERA. Most importantly, Glasnow’s strikeout rate has jumped to 39.3% in 2020 to go along with a 14.4% swinging-strike rate. In 2019, he posted a 2.78 xFIP on the road while throwing slightly better against left-handed batters, although it was in somewhat of limited innings.
Glasnow gets an interesting matchup against the New York Yankees. They rank fifth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, although they also rank third in team wOBA. With that being said, they are without a few starts and have been struggling in recent games. Glasnow is a +129 underdog in a game set at 7.5 runs, giving New York an implied team total of 4.1 runs. Overall, his metrics, including a .345 BABIP, suggest he’s been unlucky thus far in 2020. His pitch mix isn’t drastically different and I expect him to bring his walk rate down as bit as he throws more innings. Shane Bieber and Gerrit Cole are the two options that will likely garner the most ownership, making Glasnow an elite tournament option on this slate.
Justin Smoak
Smoak has been struggling quite a bit recently. He’s only hitting for a .179 average with a .536 slugging percentage and a .817 OPS over his last 10 games. He does own four extra-base hits (three home runs) and seven RBIs in those games. Smoak was at his best against right-handed pitching in 2019, posting a .202 average with a .436 slugging percentage and a .783 OPS. He also ended last season with a .334 wOBA and a .234 ISO against righties.
Smoak gets a great matchup against Trevor Williams tonight. Last season, Williams allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .335 average with a .561 slugging percentage and a .393 wOBA. He also gave up a .279/.489/.343 line on the road in 2019. Smoak is expected to hit fourth in the Milwaukee Brewers offense tonight. He’s a player that comes with quite a bit of risk but plenty of home run power. He’s an outstanding tournament option in a plus matchup.
Christian Yelich
Yelich continues to struggle in 2020, posting a .171 average with a .400 slugging percentage and a .693 OPS over his last 10 games. He recorded four extra-base hits (two home runs), two RBIs, and one stolen base over that span. Yelich was elite against right-handed pitching in 2019, hitting for a .358 average with a .734 slugging percentage and a 1.189 OPS. He also boasted a .473 wOBA and a .377 ISO against righties last season.
Yelich gets an elite matchup against Trevor Williams, who’s struggles against left-handed batters have already been outlined in the Justin Smoak recommendation. Yelich is expected to hit second in the Milwaukee Brewers lineup tonight. His struggles throughout the 2020 season are a concern, but he still boasts plenty of upside. This is a Coors slate with a number of expensive outfielders that make sense, leaving Yelich as the perfect GPP option in an elite matchup.
Eloy Jimenez
Jimenez has caught fire in recent games, recording a .385 average with a .769 slugging percentage and a 1.224 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts seven extra-base hits (four home runs) and nine RBIs in those contests. Jimenez is hitting for a .271 average with a .500 slugging percentage and a .821 OPS in his career against left-handed pitching. He also owns a .343 wOBA and a .229 ISO against lefties throughout his short career.
Jimenez gets a matchup against Rich Hill, who allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .233 average with a .436 slugging percentage and a .309 wOBA last season. Jimenez is expected to hit second in the Chicago White Sox lineup, and he continues to be one of the hottest hitters in the league at the moment. He boasts elite upside but consistently goes overlooked. He makes an elite option tonight.
SuperDraft
Raimel Tapia (1.55x)
Tapia has found plenty of success recently. He’s hitting for a .351 average with a .405 slugging percentage and a .884 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he owns one extra-base hit, three RBIs, and two stolen bases. Tapia posted a .274 average with a .422 slugging percentage and a .733 OPS against right-handed pitching in 2019. He ended last season with a .311 wOBA and a .148 ISO against righties, as well.
Tapia gets a matchup against Garrett Richards. Throughout his career, Richards has allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .239 average with a .360 slugging percentage and a .296 wOBA. Tapia is expected to lead off for the Colorado Rockies tonight, and he’ll benefit from playing in Coors, as he’s hitting .410 with a .538 slugging percentage and a 1.049 OPS at home this season. He isn’t a player that will be high on the Coors list on SuperDraft, but he gets a 1.55x multiplier. He’s an elite option on this slate.
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