Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Danny Duffy
Duffy has seen a few ups and downs this season, recording a 5.79 ERA through 2 starts. He does boast a 4.32 xFIP, though, while holding his opponents to a .182 average and 0.75 WHIP. Most importantly, Duffy’s strikeout rate has jumped to 26.3% to go along with a 9.3% swinging-strike rate. He changed his pitch mix this season, throwing his curveball and changeup more and his slider and fastball less than in the past. His strikeout rate is likely to return to around 20% but it may be able to stay up in this matchup.
Duffy gets a matchup against the Chicago Cubs, who ranks fifth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking as an average offense in team wOBA. Duffy is a +136 underdog in a game set at 8 runs tonight, giving Chicago an implied team total of 4.4 runs. The Cubs don’t feature a dominant offense at the moment, and Duffy is a cheap starting pitching option in tournaments tonight.
Pablo Sandoval
Sandoval has been ice cold to start the 2020 season. He’s hitting only .095 without any extra-base hits. Sandoval was better against left-handed pitching in 2019, but he still hit for a .259 average with a .491 slugging percentage, .796 OPS, and .232 ISO against right-handed pitching last season. He’s a high upside option that has yet to flash at all in the new season.
Sandoval gets a great matchup against Chi Chi Gonzalez tonight. He struggled against left-handed batters last season, allowing them to hit for a .250 average with a .481 slugging percentage and a .362 wOBA in 2019. Sandoval is expected to hit sixth in the San Francisco Giants lineup tonight. It isn’t often you can get a player with Sandoval’s upside at low ownership in Coors, but that could be the case tonight. He isn’t going to come cheap but he makes a fantastic option in GPPs on this slate.
Javier Baez
Baez has seen mixed results early this season. He’s hitting for a .243 average with a .541 slugging percentage and a .841 OPS. Baez also owns five extra-base hits (three home runs) and six RBIs through nine games. He dominated left-handed pitching last season, hitting .304 with a .618 slugging percentage, .966 OPS, and .314 ISO. He enters this game with .068 wOBA and .066 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching.
Baez gets a matchup against Danny Duffy, who I have outlined above. While I believe he’s a high upside arm on this slate, he struggled at times against right-handed batters in 2019. Duffy allowed righties to hit for a .249 average with a .439 slugging percentage and a .318 wOBA. Baez is expected to hit third in the Chicago Cubs lineup, and he boasts elite upside. He’s a top tournament option on this slate.
Luis Robert
Robert has looked elite early in his MLB career. He’s hitting .351 with a .595 slugging percentage and a .979 OPS through his first 9 games. Robert also owns five extra-base hits (two home runs), six RBIs, and one stolen base in those contests. It’s too early in his career to offer batting splits numbers, but right-handed batters generally find more success against left-handed pitchers.
Robert gets a plus matchup against Brett Anderson. Anderson was at his worst against right-handed batters in 2019, allowing them to hit for a .280 average with a .441 slugging percentage and a .325 wOBA. Robert has moved into the leadoff spot for the Chicago White Sox, and that’s expected to be the case again tonight. It’s surprising he isn’t projected for more ownership at his price tag, but it’s something we can take advantage of.
Trent Grisham
Grisham has been an extremely high upside option early this season. He’s hitting for a .263 average with a .605 slugging percentage and a .969 OPS through 10 games. He owns six extra-base hits (three home runs), six RBIs, and two stolen bases. Grisham has been at his best against right-handed pitching recording a .245 average with a .477 slugging percentage, .823 OPS, and .232 ISO against righties. He also boasts .068 wOBA and .092 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
Grisham gets a terrible matchup against Walker Buehler, who held left-handed batters to a .216 average with a .349 slugging percentage and a .263 wOBA in 2019. Grisham is expected to hit second for the San Diego Padres tonight. He comes with quite a bit of risk, but the matchup will keep his ownership low and he can score fantasy points with either his speed or power.
SuperDraft
Jose Abreu (1.45x)
Abreu has performed well early this season, posting a .282 average with a .436 slugging percentage and a .753 OPS through 9 games. He also boasts 4 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 4 RBIs. In 2019, Abreu crushed left-handed pitching, posting a .360 average with a .591 slugging percentage, 1.009 OPS, and .232 ISO. He also recorded .103 wOBA and .017 ISO differentials against lefties last season.
Abreu gets a plus matchup against Brett Anderson, who has been outlined in the Luis Robert recommendation. Abreu is expected to hit third in the Chicago White Sox lineup, and he makes an elite option tonight. He could go overlooked on SuperDraft with the Colorado game and Minnesota Twins in more appealing spots tonight. Abreu’s 1.45x multiplier makes him one of the top options on this slate, though.
Follow Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
