Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Daniel Ponce de Leon
Ponce de Leon has struggled in 2020, allowing 7 earned runs over 12 innings while striking out 17 batters through 4 games (3 starts). His 5.25 ERA matches his 5.27 xFIP and 4.96 SIERA. Ponce de Leon has elite strikeout stuff, though, posting 30.4% strikeout and 13.5% swinging-strike rates. He’s seen similar success at home and on the road throughout his career. The same can be said for the handedness of the batter, although he’s been at his best on the road against right-handed batters.
Ponce de Leon gets an interesting matchup against the Cleveland Indians tonight. They rank as an average team in terms of strikeouts per at-bat. They’re also an average offense in this slate in team wOBA. Ponce de Leon is currently a +108 underdog in a game set at 9 runs. His biggest issues have come with a 17.9% walk rate and he has struggled with walks throughout his career. With that being said, if he can control the ball, he boasts elite upside because of his elite strikeout rate. Ponce de Leon certainly comes with quite a bit of risk but he boasts an elite ceiling if he can find a way to throw deeper into his starts. Keep in mind, pitch count isn’t the issue. The issue is his control.
Jose Abreu
Abreu could be the hottest hitter in the MLB right now. He’s hitting for a .475 average with a 1.225 slugging percentage and a 1.748 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 12 extra-base hits (9 home runs) and 18 RBIs over that span. Abreu ended the 2019 season with a .360 average, .591 slugging percentage, and 1.009 OPS against left-handed pitching. He also recorded a .420 wOBA and a .232 ISO against lefties in 2019.
Abreu gets a great matchup against Danny Duffy tonight. Duffy was a slight reverse splits pitcher in 2019, but still allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .249 average with a .439 slugging percentage and a .318 wOBA. Abreu is expected to hit third in the Chicago White Sox lineup tonight. They are one of the best offenses in the MLB, but Abreu will likely go overlooked because of this being a Coors slate. It gives us leverage on one of the best hitters in the MLB at the moment, and he comes with as much upside as anyone on this slate, Coors players included.
Anthony Rendon
Rendon is another player that has caught fire in recent games, posting a .476 average with a .595 slugging percentage and a 1.084 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he recorded three extra-base hits (one home runs) and seven RBIs. He was elite against left-handed pitching in 2019, recording a .316 average with a .618 slugging percentage and a 1.050 OPS. He ended last season with a .418 wOBA and a .301 ISO against lefties, as well.
Rendon gets a matchup against Nick Margevicius. Margevicius has been a reverse splits pitcher throughout his career, although right-handed batters are hitting for a .252 average with a .456 slugging percentage and a .328 wOBA. He’s also given up a .277/.504/.335 line on the road to his opponents. Rendon is expected to hit fourth in the Los Angeles Angels lineup tonight. He’s in a similar spot to Abreu where he’ll go overlooked on this slate because of all of the options in the Colorado/San Deigo game.
Juan Soto
Soto continues to find success, posting a .353 average with a .618 slugging percentage and a 1.106 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts five extra-base hits (two home runs) and four RBIs in those games. Soto is better against right-handed pitching but ended 2019 with a .285 average, .478 slugging percentage, and .850 OPS against left-handed pitching. He also recorded a .355 wOBA and a .194 ISO against lefties last season.
Soto gets a matchup against Martin Perez, who held left-handed batters to a .228 average with a .294 slugging percentage and a .260 wOBA in 2019. He was due for quite a bit of regression against lefties, although he has found similar success against them in 2020, as well. Still, Soto is expected to hit fourth in the Washington Nationals lineup. He’s a dominant option against anyone, and that includes middling pitchers that have found success against left-handed batters.
Justin Upton
Upton has been ice cold recently. He’s only hitting for a .059 average with a .147 slugging percentage and a .282 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns one home run and three RBIs over that span. With that being said, Upton owns a career .259 average with a .488 slugging percentage and a .847 OPS against left-handed pitching. He boasts a .361 wOBA and a .228 ISO against lefties in his career, as well.
Upton gets a matchup against Nick Margevicius, who has already been outlined in the Anthony Rendon recommendation. Upton’s struggles in recent years are certainly concerning, but he continues to come with plenty of upside, especially in plus matchups. His price tag is far too low for that, making him a solid tournament option on this slate.
SuperDraft
Ryan O’Hearn (1.6x)
O’Hearn has struggled in recent games, recording a .148 average with a .259 slugging percentage and a .509 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns one extra-base hit and five RBIs in those contests. O’Hearn has been at his best against right-handed pitching throughout his career, though, posting a .231 average with a .464 slugging percentage and a .782 OPS. He owns a .330 wOBA and a .233 ISO in his career against righties, as well.
O’Hearn gets a plus matchup against Reynaldo Lopez tonight. He allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .290 average with a .493 slugging percentage and a .364 wOBA in 2019. He also gave up a 45.7% fly ball rate to lefties last season. O’Hearn is expected to hit fourth in the Kansas City Royals lineup tonight. He’s a home run threat that gets the 1.6x multiplier on SuperDraft. He’s a risky option with tremendous home run potential in this game.
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