Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Adrian Houser
Houser has seen mixed results through five starts in 2020. He’s allowed 12 earned runs over 29 innings while striking out 21 batters. He owns a 3.76 xFIP and a 4.06 SIERA to go along with his 3.72 ERA. Houser’s strikeout rate has dipped to 17.9% but his 9.6% swinging-strike rate suggests he could see positive regression on that as he throws more innings. He was at his best in Milwaukee in 2019, posting a 3.31 xFIP at home while he also found elite success against right-handed batters.
Houser gets a great matchup against the Cincinnati Reds on this 10 game slate. The Reds don’t strike out at an elite rate but their offense features a below-average team wOBA on this slate. Cincinnati has also featured the worst offense in the MLB over the last 10 days. The Reds have only scored four runs in this series, and I don’t expect them to find much success against Houser tonight. He posted 25 fantasy points against the Chicago White Sox earlier this season, but his lack of strikeouts has kept his upside hidden at this point. This could be the matchup he truly breaks out in.
Austin Romine
Romine is an extremely solid hitter for his position. He’s hitting for a .250 average with a .361 slugging percentage and a .631 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns two extra-base hits (one home run) and five RBIs over that span. Romine was at his best against left-handed pitching in 2019, posting a .309 average with a .471 slugging percentage and a .818 OPS. He ended last season with a .346 wOBA and a .162 ISO against lefties, as well.
Romine gets a solid matchup against Jon Lester tonight. Lester was a reverse splits pitcher last season but still allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .286 average with a .469 slugging percentage and a .340 wOBA. Lester gave up a .268/.444/.331 line to his opponents on the road, as well. Romine is only expected to hit eighth in the Detroit Tigers lineup tonight, but that’s generally around where most catchers hit. He’s an extremely cheap option, who boasts solid upside. If I’m paying down at catcher tonight, it’ll likely be for Romine.
Eric Hosmer
Hosmer has seen plenty of ups and downs recently, hitting for a .238 average with a .571 slugging percentage and a .876 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he posted 6 extra-base hits (4 home runs), 11 RBIs, and 1 stolen base. Hosmer ended the 2019 season with a .276 average, .460 slugging percentage, and .781 OPS against right-handed pitching. He also recorded a .326 wOBA and a .184 ISO throughout the season against right-handed pitchers.
Hosmer gets a great matchup against Tiajuan Walker on this slate. In his last full season, Walker allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .230 average with a .411 slugging percentage and a .311 wOBA. He also gave up a .251/.378/.301 line to his opponents on the road. Hosmer is expected to hit fourth in the San Diego Padres lineup tonight. He has been a bit of a boom or bust option, which will help keep his ownership low, but he comes with elite upside in this matchup.
Kole Calhoun
Calhoun has been surprisingly consistent in recent games. He’s only hitting .194 with a .516 slugging percentage and a .875 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he has four extra-base hits (three home runs) and four RBIs. Calhoun was at his best against right-handed pitching last season, posting a .240 average with a .486 slugging percentage and a .816 OPS. He ended the season with a .337 wOBA and a .245 ISO against righties, as well.
Calhoun gets an interesting matchup against Jon Gray tonight. Gray struggled against left-handed batters in 2019, allowing them to hit for a .272 average with a .457 slugging percentage and a .345 wOBA. Calhoun is expected to lead off for the Arizona Diamondbacks and he continues to come with a cheap price tag. He’s an outstanding tournament option tonight.
Trent Grisham
Grisham is beginning to heat back up, posting a .273 average with a .500 slugging percentage and a .833 OPS over his last 10 games. He recorded four extra-base hits (three home runs) and seven RBIs over that span. Grisham owns a .257 average with a .496 slugging percentage and a .859 OPS against right-handed pitching. He also boasts a .364 wOBA and a .238 ISO against righties.
Grisham gets a matchup against Taijuan Walker, which has already been outlined in the Eric Hosmer recommendation. Grisham is expected to lead off for the San Diego Padres tonight. He comes with a great combination of power and speed, allowing him to score fantasy points in multiple ways. His price tag is on the rise, but still far too cheap for this matchup. He’s an elite option on this slate.
SuperDraft
JaCoby Jones (1.7x)
Jones has cooled off a bit recently, posting a .216 average with a .270 slugging percentage and a .539 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns two extra-base hits and one RBI in those games. Jones was better against right-handed pitching in 2019, posting a .200 average with a .317 slugging percentage and a .563 OPS against lefties. He ended the season with a .234 wOBA and a .117 ISO against left-handed pitching.
Jones gets a matchup against Jon Lester, who has been outlined in the Austin Romine recommendation. Jones is expected to lead off for the Detroit Tigers. If that’s the case, he makes an outstanding option on SuperDraft, where he boasts a 1.7x multiplier. He’s a player that comes with plenty of speed that hasn’t been on display this season. Lester is known for allowing stolen bases, adding to Jones’ upside tonight.
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