Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Brandon Woodruff
Woodruff has thrown well through six starts in 2020. He’s allowed only 11 earned runs over 30.2 innings while striking out 33 batters. He owns a 3.47 xFIP and a 3.63 SIERA in 2020. Woodruff comes with plenty of strikeout upside, recording 26.2% strikeout and 11.5% swinging-strike rates this season. He posted similar numbers against both left- and right-handed batters, although he was slightly better against righties. Most importantly, he was at his best in Milwaukee in 2019, recording an elite 2.91 xFIP over 70.2 innings at home.
Woodruff gets a great matchup against the Cincinnati Reds tonight. They don’t strike out at a high rate but they have been the worst offense in the MLB in recent games. Woodruff has struggled in recent games, keeping his price tag low. With that being said, he has flashed elite upside in 2020, as well, scoring 37.1 fantasy points against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Woodruff will likely go overlooked in favor of Chris Paddack on this slate, but he makes an elite tournament option tonight.
Jose Abreu
Abreu has been arguably the best hitter in the MLB over his last 10 games. Over that span, he’s hitting for a .447 average with a 1.158 slugging percentage and a 1.658 OPS. He owns 11 extra-base hits (8 home runs) and 16 RBIs in those games, as well. In 2019, Abreu dominated left-handed pitching, posting a .360 average with a .591 slugging percentage and a 1.009 OPS. He also ended the season with a .420 wOBA and a .232 ISO against left-handed pitching.
Abreu gets a great matchup against Steven Brault tonight. Brault struggled against right-handed batters last season, allowing them to hit for a .270 average with a .454 slugging percentage and a .351 wOBA. He also gave up a .301/.496/.370 line to his opponents on the road in 2019. Abreu is expected to hit fourth in the Chicago White Sox lineup. While he has been on fire, Edwin Encarnacion is another player that hits left-handed pitching well and comes with a significantly lower price tag. Abreu could lose ownership to his teammate tonight.
Ty France
France has seen plenty of ups and downs in 2020, posting a .217 average with a .478 slugging percentage and a .812 OPS over his last 10 games. He also recorded two home runs and four RBIs in those contests. France was at his best against left-handed pitching in 2019. He ended the season with a .236 average, .509 slugging percentage, and .772 OPS against lefties. He also posted a .316 wOBA and a .273 ISO against the las season.
France gets an interesting matchup against Marco Gonzales tonight. He was a reverse splits pitcher last season, although he allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .251 average with a .402 slugging percentage and a .300 wOBA. Gonzales allowed a .271/.471/.335 line to his opponents outside of Seattle in 2019, as well. France is expected to hit fifth in one of the most explosive offenses in the MLB. He certainly comes with risk, but he’s a cheap option with plenty of upside on this slate.
Victor Reyes
Reyes continues to find success, as he’s hitting for a .250 average with a .406 slugging percentage and a .679 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he posted three extra-base hits (one home runs), two RBIs, and one stolen base. Reyes was at his best against right-handed pitching last season, recording a .309 average with a .446 slugging percentage and a .787 OPS. He ended 2019 with a .332 wOBA and a .137 ISO against right-handed pitching.
Reyes gets an interesting matchup against Tyler Chatwood tonight. He has performed well for the most part in 2020 but he allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .306 average with a .430 slugging percentage and a .357 wOBA in 2019. Reyes is leading off for the Detroit Tigers, and he’s one of the cheapest options on the slate. He can be used in all leagues cause of his price tag but may go overlooked on this slate.
Jason Heyward
Heyward has quietly performed well, recording a .280 average with a .480 slugging percentage and a .935 OPS over his last 10 games. He posted four extra-base hits and one RBI in those games. Heyward ended 2019 with a .264 average, .466 slugging percentage, and .831 OPS against right-handed pitching. He also recorded a .350 wOBA and a .202 ISO against righties in 2019.
Heyward gets a matchup against Spencer Turnbull, who struggled against left-handed batters last season. He allowed them to hit for a .298 average with a .444 slugging percentage and a .347 wOBA. He also allowed a .283/.446/.337 line in Detroit last season. Heyward is expected to hit sixth in the Chicago Cubs lineup and he’s far too cheap tonight. He could garner some ownership but makes an outstanding option in this matchup.
SuperDraft
Matt Carpenter (1.7x)
Carpenter is only hitting for a .233 average with a .400 slugging percentage and a .795 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns three extra-base hits (one home run) and six RBIs over that span, as well. Carpenter struggled in 2019 but found more success against right-handed batters. He posted a .228 average with a .405 slugging percentage and a .737 OPS against right-handed pitching. He also recorded a .318 wOBA and a .177 ISO against righties.
Carpenter gets a plus matchup against Matt Harvey tonight. In 2019, Harvey allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .295 average with a .571 slugging percentage and a .399 wOBA. Carpenter is expected to hit fourth in the St. Louis Cardinals lineup. He’s a safe option who comes with plenty of upside, as well. Carpenter also gets a 1.7x multiplier on SuperDraft, making him an elite option.
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