Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Alec Mills
Mills has seen mixed results through 4 starts in 2020. He’s allowed 12 earned runs over 22.2 innings while recording 15 strikeouts. He owns a 4.96 xFIP and a 5.06 SIERA, as well. Mills’ strikeout and swinging-strike rates have dropped to 16.3% and 7.3%, respectively. Oddly enough, there hasn’t been a major change in his pitch mix, suggesting he comes with more strikeout upside than he’s flashed thus far. Mills has been at his best against right-handed batters throughout his career, holding them to a 3.42 xFIP. His xFIP also drops from 4.59 at home to 3.74 on the road in his career.
Mills gets a plus matchup against the Detroit Tigers tonight. They rank second on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat while also ranking as an average offense in team wOBA. Mills is a -124 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving the Tigers an implied team total of only 4.5 runs. He’s shown the ability to throw deep into the game while flashing 25 fantasy point upside. Mills makes a solid option in tournaments, as Jesus Luzardo will likely garner significantly more ownership around the same price tag.
Tommy Edman
Edman has seen plenty of ups and downs throughout the season, but he has been struggling recently. He’s hitting for a .188 average with a .219 slugging percentage and a .516 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns only one extra-base hit and four RBIs in those games. Edman has found plenty of success against right-handed pitching in his career, posting a .283 average with a .448 slugging percentage and a .780 OPS. He owns a .331 wOBA and a .164 ISO against right-handed pitching in his career, as well.
Edman gets a plus matchup against Brad Keller tonight. Keller was at his worst against left-handed batters in 2019, allowing them to hit for a .251 average with a .370 slugging percentage and a .314 wOBA. He also gave up a .269/.404/.325 line on the road last season. Edman is currently expected to hit second in the St. Louis Cardinals lineup. He’s been an extremely consistent option in recent games but has rarely flashed the upside he possesses. He’s an outstanding tournament option in a plus matchup tonight.
Jorge Polanco
Polanco continues to be a solid option for the Minnesota Twins. He’s hitting for a .275 average with a .325 slugging percentage and a .651 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns two extra-base hits and seven RBIs in those games. Polanco looked great against right-handed pitching in 2019, recording a .306 average with a .513 slugging percentage and a .891 OPS. He finished 2019 with a .372 wOBA and a .207 ISO against right-handed pitching, as well.
Polanco gets a tough matchup against Aaron Civale tonight. He has looked good early in his career, allowing only a .221 average with a .393 slugging percentage and a .264 wOBA to left-handed batters. Polanco is expected to hit second in the Minnesota lineup tonight, though. He’ll be hitting in one of the best offenses in the MLB, and the matchup will keep his ownership low. He could find success, especially against the Cleveland bullpen, though, making him a solid GPP play on this slate.
Raimel Tapia
Tapia has only played in 20 games this season, posting a .281 average with a .333 slugging percentage and a .716 OPS. He owns two extra-base hits, six RBIs, and three stolen bases in those games. Tapia recorded a .274 average with a .422 slugging percentage and a .733 OPS against right-handed pitching throughout the 2019 season. He also ended that season with a .311 wOBA and a .148 ISO against righties.
Tapia gets a matchup against Merrill Kelly tonight. He has thrown well this season but allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .274 average with a .431 slugging percentage and a .325 wOBA in 2019. Tapia is expected to lead off for the Colorado Rockies tonight because of an injury to David Dahl. Tapia certainly comes with risk outside of Colorado, but he’s cheap and boasts stolen base upside. He won’t garner ownership cause he’s playing in Arizona, but he can be used in tournaments tonight.
Jo Adell
Adell has struggled through 14 games this season, posting a .196 average with a .216 slugging percentage and a .470 OPS. He owns only one extra-base hit thus far. In 2019, Adell hit for a .308 average with a .553 slugging percentage in Double-A before posting a .264 average and a .355 slugging percentage in Triple-A. He hasn’t displayed his power or speed in the MLB yet.
Adell gets an interesting matchup against Framber Valdez tonight. Valdez struggled against right-handed batters in 2019, allowing them to hit for a .291 average with a .461 slugging percentage and a .356 wOBA. Adell is expected to hit sixth in the Los Angeles Angels lineup tonight. He comes with plenty of upside for an extremely low price tag. He’s a boom or bust option on this slate.
SuperDraft
Victor Reyes (1.7x)
Reyes continues to play well for the Detroit Tigers, posting a .281 average with a .500 slugging percentage and a .803 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns four extra-base hits (one home runs), two RBIs, and one stolen base in those contests. Reyes looked outstanding against right-handed pitching last season, recording a .309 average with a .446 slugging percentage and a .787 OPS. He ended 2019 with a .332 wOBA and a .137 ISO against right-handed pitching, as well.
Reyes gets a matchup against Alec Mills tonight. While I like Mills, he has struggled against left-handed batters throughout his career, allowing them to hit for a .262 average with a .433 slugging percentage and a .343 wOBA. Reyes is expected to lead off for the Tigers, and he has the ability to score fantasy points multiple ways while on the field. He also gets an outstanding 1.7x multiplier on SuperDraft.
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