Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Zack Wheeler
Wheeler has seen mixed results through four starts this season. He has allowed 9 runs (8 earned runs) over 25.2 innings while striking out only 12 batters. His 2.86 ERA is a bit better than his 4.44 xFIP and 4.98 SIERA. He’s due for positive strikeout regression, though, as his 12% strikeout rate is far too low for his 9.8% swinging-strike rate. Wheeler was at his best against right-handed batters in 2019, holding them to a 3.49 xFIP. He also posted a 4.13 xFIP on the road and will benefit from playing in Atlanta with his home stadium now being one of the more hitter-friendly ones in Philadelphia.
Wheeler gets an interesting matchup against the Atlanta Braves tonight. They rank third on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat while ranking below average in team wOBA. Wheeler is a -111 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving the Braves an implied team total of 4.7 runs. Atlanta will once again be without Ronald Acuna Jr. or Ozzie Albies tonight, limiting their offense. Wheeler has flashed upside throughout the 2020 season and I expect him to go overlooked in favor of Zac Gallen tonight.
Eric Hosmer
Hosmer has flashed tremendous upside in recent games. He’s hitting for a .243 average with a .595 slugging percentage and a .912 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns five extra-base hits (four home runs), nine RBIs, and two stolen bases in those games, as well. Hosmer was at his best against right-handed pitching in 2019, posting a .276 average with a .460 slugging percentage and a .781 OPS. He also ended last season with a .326 wOBA and a .184 ISO against righties.
Hosmer gets a matchup against Brandon Bielak tonight. Bielak has held left-handed batters to a .125 average with a .150 slugging percentage and a .205 wOBA in his short MLB career. With that being said, he’s due for massive regression and it’s only a matter of time before his 44.8% fly-ball rate to lefties catches up with him. Hosmer is expected to hit fourth in the San Deigo Padres lineup tonight. He’s been a relatively consistent option while flashing tremendous upside. He makes an outstanding GPP play on this slate.
Alec Bohm
Bohm has quietly performed well through nine games this season. He’s hitting for a .276 average with a .379 slugging percentage and a .779 OPS. He owns three extra-base hits with three RBIs, as well. Bohm’s splits are limited in the MLB but he has been better against right-handed pitching early on. Still, I expect him to find success against lefties as he gets more at-bats, similarly to the majority of right-handed batters in the Majors.
Bohm gets a plus matchup against Robbie Erlin, who allowed a .296 average with a .452 slugging percentage and a .329 wOBA to right-handed batters in 2019. He also allowed a .362/.452/.329 line his opponents outside of San Diego last season. Bohm is only expected to hit eighth in the Philadelphia Phillies lineup tonight. His position in the batting order will keep his ownership low, but we haven’t seen the true upside of Bohm at this point in his MLB career.
Kyle Schwarber
Schwarber has been struggling, as he’s hitting for a .194 average with a .419 slugging percentage and a .744 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns three extra-base hits (two home runs) and four RBIs in those contests. Schwarber posted a .255 average with a .552 slugging percentage and a .900 OPS against right-handed pitching in 2019. He also recorded a .367 wOBA and a .298 ISO against righties last season.
Schwarber gets an interesting matchup against Reynaldo Lopez tonight. Lopez gave up a .290 average with a .493 slugging percentage and a .364 wOBA to left-handed batters last season. He also gave up a .296/.511/.362 line to his opponents on the road in 2019. Lopez also allowed a 45.7% fly-ball rate to lefties last season. Schwarber is expected to hit fourth in the Chicago Cubs lineup. He’s a powerful batter that will benefit from playing against a fly-ball pitcher tonight.
Dylan Carlson
Carlson is only hitting for a .125 average with a .156 slugging percentage and a .333 OPS through 10 games this season. He owns one extra-base hit and one stolen base. Carlson has seen limited at-bats against left-handed pitching this season, but he projects as a solid hitter against either handedness after posting a .361 average over an 18 game stretch in the Triple-A.
Carlson gets a plus matchup against Wade Miley, who allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .267 average with a .415 slugging percentage and a .319 wOBA in 2019. Carlson is tentatively expected to hit ninth in the lineup for the St. Louis Cardinals. He boasts more upside than he has displayed in the MLB, as he owns a solid combination of power and speed. He’s a high upside salary relief option tonight.
SuperDraft
Nicky Lopez (1.95x)
Lopez has struggled a bit recently, hitting only .200 with a .267 slugging percentage and a .581 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns only two extra-base hits over that span. Lopez has surprisingly struggled against right-handed pitching in his career, posting a .226 average with a .310 slugging percentage and a .579 OPS. He owns a .252 wOBA and a .084 ISO against righties, as well.
Lopez gets an interesting matchup against Randy Dobnak. He’s held left-handed batters to a .173 average with a .240 slugging percentage and a .204 wOBA through his career. With that being said, he’s due for regression against lefties. Lopez is hitting second in the Kansas City Royals lineup, adding to his upside. He also gets a 1.95x multiplier on SuperDraft, making him an interesting option on this slate.
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