Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Pablo Lopez
Lopez has looked elite through 3 starts, striking out 19 batters in 16 innings while allowing only 4 earned runs. He owns a 2.74 xFIP and a 3.12 SIERA in those games, as well. Lopez owns dominant 28.4% strikeout and 17% swinging-strike rates in 2020. He was at his best at home against right-handed batters last season, recording an outstanding 3.55 xFIP in that situation.
Lopez gets a tough matchup against the New York Mets tonight. They don’t strike out at a high rate and they have the best team wOBA on the slate. With that being said, he’ll benefit from playing in one of the more pitcher-friendly stadiums in the MLB tonight. Lopez is a +197 underdog in a game set at 7.5 runs, giving the Mets an implied team total of 4.6 runs. He has seen his pitch count increase in each of his games in 2020 and I expect him to throw deeper in this game. He has also posted 25+ fantasy points in 2 of his 3 contests, flashing plenty of upside for a surprisingly low price tag.
Carlos Santana
Santana has struggled early in the 2020 season, recording a .194 average with a .306 slugging percentage and a .720 OPS. He has posted 4 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 9 RBIs through 23 games this season. Santana was significantly better against left-handed pitching in 2019, though, hitting for a .324 average with a .551 slugging percentage and a .979 OPS. He also ended last season with a .407 wOBA and a .227 ISO against left-handed pitching.
Santana gets a matchup against Steven Brault tonight. Brault struggled against right-handed batters in 2019, allowing them to hit for a .270 average with a .454 slugging percentage and a .351 wOBA. Santana is hitting fourth in the Cleveland Indians lineup, suggesting he could see Brault twice before the opener is removed from this game. He’s expected to be relieved by Chad Kuhl, although we’re looking to get the pair of at-bats against the left-handed pitcher for Santana. Regardless, he makes a great tournament option on this slate.
Max Muncy
Muncy has been ice cold for most of 2020, hitting for a .170 average with a .364 slugging percentage and a .666 OPS. He has recorded 7 extra-base hits (5 home runs) and 11 RBIs through 24 games. Muncy was a reverse splits hitter in 2019, but still ended with a .242 average with a .509 slugging percentage and a .887 OPS against right-handed pitching. He recorded a .372 wOBA and a .267 ISO against righties last season, as well.
Muncy gets a great matchup against Taijuan Walker tonight. Walker has struggled against both sides of the plate, allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .239 average with a .416 slugging percentage and a .312 wOBA throughout his career. Muncy has moved down to sixth in the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup, forcing ownership off of him from when he was leading off or hitting second. Muncy still comes with elite power and he’s an outstanding tournament option, specifically with second base eligibility.
Juan Soto
Soto has been arguably the best hitter in the MLB this season, posting a .417 average with a .938 slugging percentage and a 1.438 OPS through 13 games. He owns 11 extra-base hits (7 home runs), 16 RBIs, and 1 stolen base. Soto has dominated right-handed pitching throughout his career, posting a .294 average with a .574 slugging percentage and a .997 OPS. He has recorded a .415 wOBA and a .280 ISO against righties, as well.
Soto gets an elite matchup against Kyle Wright on this slate. Throughout his career, Wright has allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .347 average with a .627 slugging percentage and a .455 wOBA. He’s also given up a .315/.506/.389 line at home throughout his short career. Soto is hitting third for the Washington Nationals tonight. He’s a player that will always garner some ownership, but it’s a Coors slate tonight, meaning Soto is likely to go overlooked. He an elite tournament option whenever he is even relatively low owned.
Shohei Ohtani
Ohtani is only hitting for a .191 average with a .426 slugging percentage and a .683 OPS in 2020. He does own 8 extra-base hits (4 home runs), 11 RBIs, and 2 stolen bases through 19 games. In 2019, Ohtani hit for a .288 average with a .527 slugging percentage and a .868 OPS against right-handed pitching. He also recorded a .358 wOBA and a .238 ISO against righties last season.
Ohtani gets an interesting matchup against Johnny Cueto tonight. In his last full season, Cueto allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .286 average with a .487 slugging percentage and a .351 wOBA. Ohtani is expected to hit fifth in the Los Angeles Angels lineup tonight. His price tag is down, but he still comes with a tremendous combination of power and speed. He’s also playing in a stadium that has been much more hitter-friendly than in the past. Ohtani should strictly be used in GPPs tonight.
SuperDraft
Abraham Toro (1.8x)
Toro has only played in 14 games in 2020, hitting for a .118 average with .235 slugging percentage and a .466 OPS. He has recorded two extra-base hits (one home run) and two RBIs in those contests. Toro has been better against right-handed pitching in his short career, posting a .208 average with a .389 slugging percentage and a .690 OPS. He owns a .295 wOBA and a .181 ISO against righties, as well.
Toro gets a matchup against Ryan Castellani tonight. He has yet to give up a hit to a left-handed batter in the MLB, but I don’t expect his success to continue at this level. Toro is only expected to hit seventh in the Houston Astros lineup tonight. He gets the Coors bump, though, and has a 1.8x multiplier on SuperDraft. He isn’t an Astros player that will garner ownership, but he comes with quite a bit of upside cause of his multiplier.
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