Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Zach Eflin
Eflin has enjoyed a solid start to his 2020 campaign, allowing 4 earned runs over 10 innings while striking out 15 batters. His 3.60 ERA is backed by a 2.11 xFIP and a 2.69 SIERA. His strikeout rate has also increased to 34.9% to go along with an 11.9% swinging-strike rate. Eflin was significantly better against right-handed batters in 2019, posting a 4.14 xFIP against them. He was also slightly better on the road last season.
Eflin gets an interesting matchup against the Boston Red Sox, who don’t strike out at a high rate but also haven’t flashed the power to dominate pitchers in 2020. Eflin is currently a -124 favorite in a game set at 11 runs, giving the Red Sox an implied team total of 5.3 runs. He allowed 4 runs in his last game but still posted 20.7 fantasy points against the Baltimore Orioles. Eflin has always had plenty of talent and it looks as if he’s putting it together in 2020. The sample size is limited but promising enough to make him an outstanding tournament option for a cheap price tag tonight.
J.T. Realmuto
Realmuto has enjoyed an outstanding start to the season, posting a .300 average with a .717 slugging percentage and a 1.071 OPS through 16 games. He also owns 9 extra-base hits (8 home runs) and 20 RBIs in those games. Realmuto was slightly better against left-handed pitching last season but still recorded a .275 average with a .481 slugging percentage and a .810 OPS against righties in 2019. He ended last season with a .338 wOBA and a .206 ISO against right-handed pitching, as well.
Realmuto gets a great matchup against Zack Godley tonight. Godley allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .259 average with a .440 slugging percentage and a .344 wOBA in 2019. He was also due for some regression against righties throughout that season. Realmuto is expected to hit fourth in the Philadelphia Phillies lineup, giving him added upside. With a few high priced pitching options on this slate, I expect most will punt or spend down at catcher, allowing us to take advantage of Realmuto. He isn’t going to come cheap, but he comes with as much upside as any catcher on this slate.
Tim Anderson
Anderson has only played in 13 games this season, but he has looked elite. He’s hitting for a .340 average with a .679 slugging percentage and a 1.054 OPS. He owns 9 extra-base hits (4 home runs), 4 RBIs, and 1 stolen base in those 13 games. Anderson performed well against either handedness last season, recording a .326 average with a .493 slugging percentage and a .844 OPS against lefties. He also recorded a .354 wOBA and a .167 ISO against left-handed pitching in 2019.
Anderson gets a matchup against Tarik Skubal tonight. Skubal is one of the Detroit Tigers’ best prospects, throwing at an elite level in the minors. He has yet to throw higher than Double-A, though, and moving directly to the MLB could pose a problem. He gives up roughly 40% fly balls to go along with tremendous strikeout stuff. Like many young left-handed pitchers, he’s likely going to struggle more against right-handed batters. Anderson is expected to lead off for the Chicago White Sox tonight, and he comes with elite upside in a matchup many will likely avoid.
Teoscar Hernandez
Hernandez has found success in 2020, recording a .299 average with a .636 slugging percentage and a .949 OPS. He owns 12 extra-base hits (7 home runs), 14 RBIs, and 2 stolen bases through 19 games. Hernandez was at his best against left-handed pitching last season, boasting a .246 average with a .493 slugging percentage and a .834 OPS. He also recorded a .347 wOBA and a .246 ISO against lefties in 2019.
Hernandez gets a great matchup against Wade LeBlanc. LeBlanc allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .296 average with a .516 slugging percentage and a .356 wOBA last season. Hernandez is expected to hit fourth in the Toronto Blue Jays lineup tonight. He’s a player that can score fantasy points in a number of ways, and he makes an outstanding option on this slate.
Austin Meadows
Meadows is hitting for a .250 average with a .500 slugging percentage and a .833 OPS this season. He has posted 6 extra-base hits (2 home runs), 6 RBIs, and 1 stolen base through only 12 games. Meadows looked great against right-handed pitching in 2019, hitting for a .298 average with a .576 slugging percentage and a .960 OPS. He also recorded a .394 wOBA and a .278 ISO against righties last season.
Meadows gets a matchup against Masahiro Tanaka, who allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .285 average with a .508 slugging percentage and a .349 wOBA in 2019. Meadows is expected to lead off for the Tampa Bay Rays, and he’ll benefit from playing the New York tonight. He isn’t going to come cheap, but that will keep his ownership down. Meadows makes a great GPP play tonight.
SuperDraft
Randal Grichuk (1.5x)
Grichuk has looked great early this season, posting a .327 average with a .509 slugging percentage and a .903 OPS thus far. He has recorded 4 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 8 RBIs through 15 games. Grichuk was at his best against left-handed pitching in 2019, hitting for a .250 average with a .473 slugging percentage and a .784 OPS. He also posted a .327 wOBA and a .223 ISO against lefties last season.
Grichuk gets a matchup against Wade LeBlanc, who has already been outlined in the Teoscar Hernandez recommendation. Grichuk is expected to hit second in the Toronto Blue Jays lineup tonight. He’s a powerful player that has found tremendous success recently. He should be able to take advantage of the matchup and getting a 1.5x multiplier on SuperDraft is an added bonus.
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