Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Alex Cobb
Cobb has thrown well in 2020, recording a 1-1 record with a 2.75 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP through 4 starts. He’s allowed only 6 runs over 19.2 innings while striking out 17 batters. He owns a 3.77 xFIP and a 4.11 SIERA this season, as well. Cobb’s strikeout rate is up to 20.2% in 2020 to go along with an 11.8% swinging-strike rate. In his last full season (2018), he was a reverse splits pitcher that performed similarly at home and on the road.
Cobb gets an interesting matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays tonight. They rank seventh on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat while also ranking as an average offense in team wOBA. Toronto will also be without Bo Bichette tonight. Cobb is a +120 underdogs in a game set at 9 runs tonight, giving the Blue Jays an implied team total of 4.8 runs. Cobb isn’t a safe option but he comes with 20+ fantasy point upside and a reasonable price tag. This isn’t nearly my favorite slate of pitching but Cobb can be considered in tournaments because of a solid matchup and plenty of potential.
Yasmani Grandal
Grandal has seen mixed results throughout the 2020 season, posting a .230 average with a .328 slugging percentage and a .675 OPS. He only owns 4 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 10 RBIs through 18 games. Grandal looked great against left-handed pitching in 2019, recording a .258 average to go along with a .529 slugging percentage, .926 OPS, and .271 ISO. He ended last season with .036 wOBA and .070 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching.
Grandal gets a great matchup against Matthew Boyd, who has struggled through four starts this season. The sample size is small but Boyd has allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .379 average with a .712 slugging percentage and a .477 wOBA this season. He has struggled on the road against right-handed batters throughout his career, as well, allowing them to hit for a .279/.490/.352 line. Grandal is expected to hit third in the Chicago White Sox lineup. He’ll likely go overlooked with Mitch Garver and Gary Sanchez only $100 away from him on this slate.
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Tatis has looked outstanding through 23 games this season. He’s hitting for a .300 average with a .678 slugging percentage and a 1.060 OPS. He also owns 15 extra-base hits (9 home runs), 21 RBIs, and 5 stolen bases. Tatis has been better against left-handed pitching throughout his short career, but he’s also hitting .300 with a .586 slugging percentage, .929 OPS, and .286 ISO against right-handed pitching. He’s also hitting .324 with a .690 slugging percentage and 1.075 OPS against righties early in 2020.
Tatis gets an elite matchup against Jordan Lyles tonight. Lyles has struggled against right-handed batters in 2020, allowing them to hit for a .357 average with a .679 slugging percentage and a .451 wOBA. He has historically been better against righties but his splits are relatively similar against both sides of the plate. More importantly, Lyles has struggled with missing bats this season and his fly ball rate is north of 50%. Tatis is expected to lead off for San Diego tonight. He has a number of ways to score fantasy points and makes an elite option on this slate.
Jeff McNeil
McNeil is hitting for a .288 average with a .356 slugging percentage and a .709 OPS this season. He has struggled with power, posting only 4 extra-base hits and 7 RBIs through 18 games. McNeil was great against right-handed pitching last season, recording a .320 average with a .564 slugging percentage, .951 OPS, and .244 ISO. He owned .039 wOBA and .109 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching in 2019.
McNeil gets a matchup against Jordan Yamamoto, who has held left-handed batters to a .168 average with a .380 slugging percentage and a .277 wOBA in his young career. I don’t expect those numbers to be sustainable, though. McNeil is expected to hit third in the New York Mets lineup tonight. If he’s starting, he makes a great tournament option, as the majority of his power comes against right-handed pitching.
Trent Grisham
Grisham has been ice cold recently, and he’s now hitting for a .228 average with a .456 slugging percentage and a .820 OPS this season. He does own 9 extra-base hits (4 home runs), 7 RBIs, and 4 stolen bases through 23 games. Throughout his career, Grisham is hitting .245 with a .462 slugging percentage, .822 OPS, and .217 ISO against right-handed pitching. He owns .104 wOBA and .099 ISO differentials against righties in his career.
Grisham gets a great matchup against Jordan Lyles, who has struggled against left-handed batters. He allowed lefties to hit for a .277 average with a .555 slugging percentage and a .382 wOBA last season. Grisham is expected to hit second in the San Diego Padres lineup. He’s another high upside option that can score fantasy points in multiple ways. His cold streak will likely keep his ownership low tonight, but he comes with more than enough upside for tournaments.
SuperDraft
Alex Bregman (1.4x)
Bregman has been enjoying a solid season, hitting for a .268 average with a .500 slugging percentage and a .881 OPS. He owns 11 extra-base hits (4 home runs) and 14 RBIs through 21 games. Bregman is also hitting for a .343/.629/1.094 line over his last 10 games. He may have had a bit of extra help last season, but he still hit .350 with a .742 slugging percentage 1.186 OPS and .393 ISO against left-handed pitching in 2019.
Bregman gets a great matchup against Kyle Freeland. Freeland struggled against right-handed batters last season, allowing them to hit for a .295 average with a .579 slugging percentage and a .383 wOBA. Bregman is expected to hit third for the Houston Astros tonight. He makes a great option and may go overlooked, as he only owns a 1.4x multiplier, which I feel is still too high for him in this matchup.
Follow Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
