Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Alex Young
Young owns a 1-0 record with a 4.66 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP through seven games. He has recorded 10 strikeouts through 9.2 innings out of the pen, as well. He boasts a 4.27 xFIP and a 3.46 SIERA early this season. Young’s strikeout rate is up to 24.4%, although his swinging-strike rate has dipped to 9.1%. He’s been slightly better as a starter throughout his short career and will be taking the mound to begin the game tonight for the first time this season.
Young gets a matchup against the San Diego Padres tonight. They lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat while struggling with their team wOBA, although I expect that to increase from last season. Young is currently +134 underdog in a game set at 9 runs tonight, giving the Padres an implied team total of 5.0 runs. He has yet to throw more than 33 pitches in a game this season, which may keep people away, but he has proven he throw deep into games last season. This is Young’s chance to win a spot in the Arizona Diamondbacks rotation, and he comes with solid upside on a smaller slate.
Yuli Gurriel
Gurriel has performed well through 19 games in 2020. He’s hitting for a .267 average with a .520 slugging percentage and a .876 OPS. He also owns 10 extra-base hits (4 home runs) and 8 RBIs in those games. Gurriel is a reverse splits hitter, but still owns a career .272 average with a .465 slugging percentage, .790 OPS, and .192 ISO against left-handed pitching. He boasts a .006 ISO differential against left-handed pitching throughout his career, as well.
Gurriel gets an interesting matchup against Nick Margevicius, who has struggled early in his career. He’s a reverse splits pitcher, but allowed right-handed batters to post a .251 average with a .440 slugging percentage and a .326 wOBA. Gurriel is expected to hit fifth in the Houston Astros lineup tonight. He’s coming off of a 26 fantasy point performance and could continue to find success in another plus matchup on this slate. Gurriel will go overlooked because of the bats in Colorado, but he comes with more than enough upside to be used in GPPs.
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Tatis has been on a tear this season, posting a .301 average with a .663 slugging percentage and a 1.032 OPS. He owns 13 extra-base hits (8 home runs), 18 RBIs, and 5 stolen bases through 21 games. Early in his career, Tatis is hitting for a .372 average with a .679 slugging percentage, 1.179 OPS, and .308 ISO against left-handed pitching. He also enters this game with .096 wOBA and .022 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching throughout his career.
Tatis gets a matchup against Alex Young tonight. Young has allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .247 average with a .453 slugging percentage and a .316 wOBA. Tatis is expected to lead off for the San Diego Padres. He boasts tremendous upside because of his combination of power and speed. He’s a player that will always garner some ownership, but most likely won’t be able to fit him if they are using Coors. Trevor Story and Trea Turner will also likely combine for quite a bit of ownership at shortstop on this slate.
Kevin Pillar
Pillar has found a ton of success early in the 2020 season. He’s hitting for a .322 average with a .458 slugging percentage and a .812 OPS. He also owns 6 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 7 RBIs through 16 games. Pillar was better against left-handed pitching in 2019, recording a .278 average with a .519 slugging percentage, .823 OPS, and .241 ISO. He ended 2019 with .050 wOBA and .092 ISO differentials against lefties.
Pillar gets a matchup against James Paxton, who has struggled early this season. In 2019, he allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .234 average with a .445 slugging percentage and a .316 wOBA. Pillar is expected to lead off for the Boston Red Sox tonight, and he has made a consistent option. He comes with enough upside for a low price tag to be used in tournaments, as well.
Michael Brantley
Brantley has cooled off a bit recently, but he’s still hitting .286 with a .446 slugging percentage and a .821 OPS this season. He has posted 7 extra-base hits (1 home run), 8 RBIs, and 1 stolen base through 15 games. Brantley found success against left-handed pitching last season, posting a .282 average with a .387 slugging percentage, .740 OPS, and .104 ISO. He was better against righties, though.
Brantley gets a matchup against Nick Margevicius tonight. He’s been a reverse splits pitcher throughout his career, allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .383 average with a .723 slugging percentage and a .464 wOBA. I don’t expect him to throw deep into this game either, allowing Brantley to face a weak Seattle bullpen. Brantley is expected to hit fourth in the Houston Astros lineup tonight. He’ll go overlooked in favor of Coors, but his price tag is far too low for his upside.
SuperDraft
Tony Kemp (1.95x)
Kemp has seen mixed results in 2020, posting a .233 average with a .233 slugging percentage and a .628 OPS. He does own two stolen bases, though. Kemp has been slightly better against right-handed pitching throughout his career, hitting for a .232 average with a .367 slugging percentage, .688 OPS, and .135 ISO. He owns .019 wOBA and .035 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
Kemp gets a matchup against Kevin Gausman tonight. Gausman struggled against left-handed batters in 2019, allowing them to hit for a .265 average with a .459 slugging percentage and a .329 wOBA. Kemp is expected to hit second in the Oakland A’s lineup tonight. He hasn’t flashed any power in 2020 but has shown his speed. He gets a 1.95x multiplier on SuperDraft, making him a risky, but his upside tournament play.
Follow Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
