Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Pablo Lopez
Lopez has thrown well early this season, holding his opponents to 2 earned runs over 10 innings while striking out 11 batters. His success is backed by a 2.85 xFIP and a 3.41 SIERA early in 2020. Lopez has flashed upside, as well, recording 26.2% strikeout and 14.2% swinging-strike rates. He’s a pitcher that has been slightly better at home throughout his career while recording a 3.99 xFIP against right-handed batters. The only major concern with his pitching is his walk rate as he has struggled with control at times.
Lopez gets a matchup against the Atlanta Braves tonight. They rank fifth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat while ranking as an average offense in team wOBA. Atlanta is coming off of two series in hitter-friendly stadiums and they will be playing in one of the most pitcher-friendly stadiums in the MLB tonight. They will also be without two of their best hitters. Lopez is a +101 underdog in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving the Braves an implied team total of 4.4 runs. It’s a large slate and ownership will be spread out but Lopez is a pitcher that is seemingly going overlooked in a plus matchup tonight. He’s also far too cheap for his upside.
Joey Votto
Votto has seen mixed results this season. He’s hitting for a .214 average with a .393 slugging percentage and a .764 OPS. He owns 4 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 8 RBIs through 16 games. Votto found significantly more success against right-handed pitching last season, recording a .268 average with a .453 slugging percentage, .814 OPS, and 1.85 ISO in 2019. He posted .049 wOBA and .119 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching last season, as well.
Votto gets a great matchup against Chad Kuhl tonight. In his last full season, he allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .265 average with a .519 slugging percentage and a .365 wOBA. Votto is hitting third in the Cincinnati Reds lineup tonight. He’ll also be playing in Cincinnati, where he’s hitting for a .308/.564/1.024 line through 11 games this season. Votto isn’t a player that most use as a one-off, but he makes an outstanding option in tournaments on this slate.
Justin Turner
Turner has found success through 20 games in 2020. He owns a .267 average with a .453 slugging percentage and a .802 OPS. He has recorded 9 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 15 RBIs in those games, as well. Turner has dominated left-handed pitching throughout his career, including last season. He posted a .287 average with a .581 slugging percentage, .939 OPS, and .294 ISO against lefties in 2019. He ended last season with .022 wOBA and .112 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching.
Turner gets a plus matchup against Patrick Sandoval tonight. Sandoval was a reverse splits pitcher in 2019, throwing surprisingly well against right-handed batters. That hasn’t been the case early this season, though, allowing them to hit for a .304 average with a .522 slugging percentage and a .362 wOBA in limited innings. Turner is expected to hit third in the Los Angeles lineup, and he’s always an elite option against a left-handed pitcher.
Eddie Rosario
Rosario has been a high risk, high reward option in 2020. He’s hitting for a .224 average with a .522 slugging percentage and a .829 OPS through 18 games. He owns 8 extra-base hits (6 home runs) and 17 RBIs this season, as well. Rosario posted a .274 average with a .518 slugging percentage, .813 OPS, and .244 ISO against right-handed pitching in 2019. He recorded .010 wOBA and .074 ISO differentials against righties last season, as well.
Rosario is expected to get a matchup against Jakob Junis, who will serve as the long reliever in this game. Kennedy struggled against left-handed batters last season, allowing them to hit for a .298 average with a .476 slugging percentage and a .352 wOBA. Rosario is expected to hit fourth in the Minnesota Twins lineup tonight. He’ll go overlooked because it’s a Coors slate, but he comes with as much upside as any player on this slate.
A.J. Pollock
Pollock has looked great through 18 games in 2020. He’s hitting for a .286 average with a .643 slugging percentage and a .998 OPS. He has posted 10 extra-base hits (5 home runs) and 11 RBIs in those contests. Pollock recorded a .323 average with a .535 slugging percentage, .906 OPS, and .212 ISO against left-handed pitching in 2019. He ended last season with .062 wOBA and .016 ISO differentials against lefties, as well.
Pollock gets a matchup against Patrick Sandoval, who has been outlined above in the Justin Turner recommendation. Pollock is expected to hit fifth in the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup, and he comes with a surprisingly cheap price tag. He makes a strong tournament option on this slate.
SuperDraft
Trent Grisham (1.85x)
Grisham has cooled off a bit recently, but he’s still hitting for a .235 average with a .485 slugging percentage and a .859 OPS this season. He owns 8 extra-base hits (4 home runs), 7 RBIs, and 3 stolen bases through 20 games. Grisham has been at his best against right-handed pitching, posting a .243 average with a .463 slugging percentage, .823 OPS, and .220 ISO against righties. He owns .093 wOBA and .092 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching, as well.
Grisham gets an interesting matchup against Merrill Kelly, who has thrown well this season. He has allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .266 average with a .429 slugging percentage and a .319 wOBA throughout his career, though. Grisham is expected to hit second in the San Diego Padres lineup. This isn’t my favorite matchup, but Grisham has elite fantasy upside and gets an elite 1.85x multiplier on SuperDraft.
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