Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Zack Godley
Godley has seen mixed results this season, allowing five earned runs over 11.1 innings while striking out 11 batters. He owns a 4.11 xFIP and a 4.03 SIERA to go along with his 3.97 ERA. Godley has posted a 22% strikeout rate to go along with a 16.4% swinging-strike rate this season. He has been a slightly better option against left-handed batters in recent years, including a 2.77 xFIP against lefties early this season. He also owns a 2.90 xFIP at home, although the sample size is limited.
Godley gets an interesting matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays. They lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking fourth last in team wOBA. Godley is a +144 underdog in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving Tampa Bay an implied team total of 4.8 runs. Godley isn’t an elite pitching option but he does come with strikeout upside, especially in a good matchup. He also comes with an extremely low price tag. He isn’t a pitcher that is going to throw deep into his start but there are limited options on this slate, making him a reasonable GPP play.
Rougned Odor
Odor has been ice cold early this season. He’s hitting for a .116 average with a .209 slugging percentage and a .401 OPS. He owns two extra-base hits (one home run) and three RBIs, as well. Odor struggled against right-handed pitching last season, but that hasn’t been the case in his career. He owns a career .241 average with a .458 slugging percentage, .747 OPS, and .217 ISO against righties. He also boasts career .017 wOBA and .062 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
Odor gets a great matchup against Taijuan Walker tonight. Walker has struggled against both sides of the plate throughout his career, allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .237 average with a .416 slugging percentage and a .311 wOBA. He has allowed his opponents to hit for a .253/.400/.311 line on the road throughout his career, as well. Odor is expected to hit sixth in the Texas Rangers lineup tonight. His recent cold streak will keep his ownership low, but he comes with quite a bit of upside for tournaments.
J.P. Crawford
Crawford has performed well in 2020, hitting for a .284 average with a .358 slugging percentage and a .751 OPS. He owns 3 extra-base hits, 5 RBIs, and 3 stolen bases through 18 games. Crawford was better against right-handed pitching in 2019, recording a .255 average with a .456 slugging percentage, .789 OPS, and .201 ISO. He posted .117 wOBA and .182 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching last season, as well.
Crawford gets an outstanding matchup against Jordan Lyles, who allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .277 average with a .555 slugging percentage and a .382 wOBA last season. Crawford will lead off for the Seattle Mariners tonight. Seattle is seen as one of the worst offenses in the MLB, which could cause their players to go overlooked. They’re allowing their players to steal whenever, though, adding to the upside of someone like Crawford.
Max Kepler
Kepler has been heating up in recent games. He’s hitting .270 with a .541 slugging percentage and a .932 OPS over his last 10 games. He also owns six extra-base hits (two home runs), eight RBIs, and one stolen base over that span. Kepler looked outstanding against left-handed pitching last season, hitting for a .293 average with a .524 slugging percentage, .880 OPS, and .231 ISO. He posted a .017 wOBA differential against left-handed pitching in 2019.
Kepler gets an interesting matchup against Eric Lauer tonight. Lauer has been a reverse splits pitcher throughout his career, allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .314 average with a .502 slugging percentage and a .375 wOBA. Kepler is expected to hit second in the Minnesota Twins offense tonight. He could go a bit overlooked compared to the other Minnesota players because of the lefty-lefty matchup, but both are reverse splits players.
Kyle Lewis
Lewis has caught fire this season, posting a .357 average with a .543 slugging percentage and a .973 OPS through 18 games. He owns 5 extra-base hits (4 home runs), 13 RBIs, and 1 stolen base. Lewis has been at his best against right-handed pitching in his short career, recording a .345 average with a .645 slugging percentage, 1.042 OPS, and .300 ISO. He owns .198 wOBA and .203 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching throughout his career.
Lewis gets a matchup against Jordan Lyles, who was outlined in the J.P. Crawford recommendation. Lyles gave up a .220 average with a .384 slugging percentage and a .277 wOBA to right-handed batters last season. Lewis is expected to hit third in the Seattle Mariners lineup. Similarly to Crawford, Lewis could go overlooked because of the offense he’s playing in. He comes with tremendous upside, though, and makes a great GPP option on this slate.
SuperDraft
Willie Calhoun (1.6x)
Calhoun is another Rangers bat that has struggled early this season. He’s hitting .162 with a .243 slugging percentage and a .438 OPS through 13 games. He owns two extra-base hits and four RBIs in those games, as well. Calhoun found plenty of success against right-handed pitching in 2019, though, posting a .290 average with a .536 slugging percentage, .881 OPS, and .287 ISO. He recorded a .047 wOBA differential against right-handed pitching in 2019, as well.
Calhoun gets a great matchup against Taijuan Walker, who has been outlined in the Rougned Odor recommendation. Calhoun is expected to hit third in the Texas Rangers offense. He comes with plenty of upside and his 1.6x multiplier on SuperDraft makes him significantly more valuable.
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