Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Mike Minor
Minor has struggled through 3 starts this season. He owns a 6.89 ERA with a 1.34 WHIP. He has allowed 12 earned runs over 15.2 innings while striking out 15 batters. Minor’s due for positive regression, though, as he boasts a 4.43 xFIP and a 4.24 SIERA. He enters this game with 21.7% strikeout and 9.7% swinging-strike rates, and we have yet to see him at his best early this season.
Minor gets a great matchup against the Seattle Mariners tonight. They rank fifth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also struggling with their team wOBA. Minor is a -130 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving Seattle an implied team total of only 4.0 runs. This is the fifth-lowest total on the slate. Minor has yet to show his upside and he gets a matchup that could help him flash it tonight. He’s a player that is likely to go overlooked with Zack Wheeler and Dylan Bundy around his price tag, as well. Minor isn’t safe, but he comes with plenty of upside on this slate.
Jose Abreu
Abreu was pulled in the eighth inning after an injury last night but I’m going back to the well with him if he’s starting. He’s hitting .250 with a .417 slugging percentage and a .697 OPS this season. He owns 6 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 9 RBIs through 17 games. Abreu was an elite option against left-handed pitching in 2019. He owned a .360 average with a .591 slugging percentage, 1.009 OPS, and .232 ISO against lefties last season. He also posted .103 wOBA and .017 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching in 2019.
Abreu gets a great matchup against Tyler Alexander tonight. Alexander has struggled in his career against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .306 average with a .523 slugging percentage and a .353 wOBA. He has also allowed a .275/.473/.323 line at home. Abreu is dealing with an injury but he’s expected to hit third in the Chicago White Sox lineup if he’s healthy enough to play. He’s an option that can always be used at low ownership against left-handed pitching.
Jonathan Schoop
Schoop has struggled a bit early this season, hitting for a .232 average with a .411 slugging percentage and a .661 OPS through 14 games. He owns four extra-base hits (three home runs) and eight RBIs, as well. In 2019, Schoop was at his best against left-handed pitching, posting a .277 average with a .563 slugging percentage, .917 OPS, and .286 ISO. He also recorded .071 wOBA and .093 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching last season.
Schoop gets a great matchup against Gio Gonzalez, who struggled against right-handed batters in 2019. He allowed them to hit for a .257 average with a .436 slugging percentage and a .328 wOBA. He gave up a .264/.397/.316 line on the road in 2019. Schoop is hitting fourth in the Detroit Tigers offense tonight. The entire Detroit offense could find success in this matchup, and Schoop is one of the highest upside options on their team. He makes an outstanding tournament option.
Juan Soto
Soto has only played in four games this season, but he has looked elite. He’s hitting for a .467 average with a 1.000 slugging percentage and a 1.500 OPS. He owns four extra-base hits (two home runs) and five RBIs in those games. Soto found plenty of success against right-handed pitching in 2019, recording a .281 average with a .584 slugging percentage, 1.000 OPS, and .303 ISO against righties. He also posted .059 wOBA and .109 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching last season.
Soto gets a great matchup against Rick Porcello tonight. Porcello struggled against left-handed batters last season, allowing them to hit for a .284 average with a .487 slugging percentage and a .346 wOBA. Soto is expected to his fourth in the Washington Nationals lineup tonight. They are an offense that is due for positive regression as a whole and Soto is their best option. He’s likely to go overlooked because this is a Coors slate, but he makes an elite option if you’re looking to pay up at outfield.
Franmil Reyes
Reyes has seen a few ups and downs in 2020, posting a .241 average with a .379 slugging percentage and a .646 OPS. He owns four extra-base hits (two home runs) and nine RBIs in those games. The majority of his projection has come over his last 10 games, though. Reyes was at his best against left-handed pitching last season, posting a .280 average with a .520 slugging percentage, .881 OPS, and .240 ISO. He posted a .035 wOBA differential against lefties in 2019.
Reyes will face off against Jon Lester, who was a reverse splits pitcher last season. He still allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .286 average with a .469 slugging percentage and a .340 wOBA. Reyes is expected to hit fifth in the Cleveland Indians lineup. He has caught fire over his last 6 games, averaging 10.7 fantasy points per game over that span. He’s still relatively cheap and makes a great tournament option tonight.
SuperDraft
Yandy Diaz (1.65x)
Diaz has struggled through 16 games this season, posting a .208 average with a .245 slugging percentage and a .599 OPS. He owns only two extra-base hits this season. Diaz has been heating up a bit over his last 10 games, though. He was dominant against left-handed pitching last season, posting a .314 average with a .588 slugging percentage, .985 OPS, and .275 ISO. He recorded .096 wOBA and .099 ISO differentials against lefties in 2019.
Diaz gets a matchup against Martin Perez tonight. Perez allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .293 average with a .476 slugging percentage and a .353 wOBA in 2019. Diaz is expected to lead off for the Tampa Bay Rays tonight. He’s been a consistent option in recent games and will get his upside from his 1.65x multiplier on SuperDraft.
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