Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Alex Cobb
Cobb looked electric in his first start, holding the Boston Red Sox to 1 run over 5.1 innings while recording 6 strikeouts. His 2.07 xFIP backed his outstanding performance, as well. The last time Cobb threw major innings was 2018, where he boasted a 4.46 xFIP in Baltimore. He struggled to miss bats, though, recording only a 14.5% strikeout rate.
Cobb gets an interesting matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays tonight, though. They strike out at the highest rate on the slate while ranking in the bottom-six in team wOBA. Cobb is a +165 underdog in a game set at 8.5 runs, though, giving Tampa Bay an implied team total of 5 runs. Cobb is the minimum price and boasts upside in this matchup. He’s a great tournament option on this slate.
Jose Abreu
Abreu is hitting .280 with a .480 slugging percentage and a .788 OPS through 6 games this season. He owns 3 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 3 RBIs in those contests. Abreu was an elite option against left-handed pitching in 2019. He boasted a .360 average with a .591 slugging percentage, 1.009 OPS, and .232 ISO against lefties last season. He brings .149 wOBA and .086 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching into this game, as well.
Abreu gets a matchup against rookie Kris Bubic. He posted a 3.06 xFIP in A+ in 2019 and will be making a massive leap to the MLB this season. Bubic also gave up a 40.4% fly-ball rate in those 17 games, suggesting he could struggle to contain home runs in the Majors. He’s hitting third in the Chicago White Sox lineup and will see plenty of opportunities to score fantasy points tonight.
Mike Moustakas
Moustakas has only played in 3 games this season, hitting .500 with a 1.100 slugging percentage and a 1.683 OPS. He owns two home runs and six RBIs. He was more consistent against left-handed pitching in 2019, but more powerful against righties. Moustakas posted a .244 average with a .508 slugging percentage, .831 OPS, and .264 ISO against righties last season. He enters this game with a .136 ISO differential against right-handed pitching.
Moustakas gets a matchup against Spencer Turnbull tonight. He struggled against left-handed batters in 2019, allowing them to hit for a .298 average with a .444 slugging percentage and a .347 wOBA. Moustakas is hitting fourth in the Cincinnati Reds lineup, and he comes with tremendous upside. His price tag is oddly low on this slate, but he will go overlooked with the Coors and Yankees bats stealing ownership.
Shogo Akiyama
Akiyama is hitting .267 with a .333 slugging percentage and a .686 OPS early in his MLB career. He does own one extra-base hit, one RBI, and one stolen base in six games, although he hasn’t played full games in them all. Akiyama owns all of his hits in the Majors against right-handed pitching, although the sample size is far too small to mean anything. Generally, left-handed batters find more success against righties, but that isn’t always the case.
Akiyama gets a matchup against Turnbull, who’s struggles against left-handed batters have been outlined in the Mike Moustakas recommendation. Akiyama is leading off for the Cincinnati Reds tonight. His upside has shown through his speed, although he has more power than he has displayed early on.
Kyle Schwarber
Schwarber is only hitting for a .227 average this season, but he also boasts a .409 slugging percentage and a .729 OPS. He owns two extra-base hits (one home run) and three RBIs through six games. Schwarber was at his best against right-handed pitching in 2019, posting a .255 average with a .522 slugging percentage, .900 OPS, and .298 ISO. He possesses .066 wOBA and .024 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching, as well.
Schwarber gets an elite matchup against Trevor Williams, who has struggled against left-handed batters. He gave up a .335 average with a .561 slugging percentage and a .393 wOBA to lefties in 2019. Schwarber is expected to hit fourth in the Chicago Cubs lineup, and he makes an elite option against one of the worst pitchers in the MLB against left-handed batters.
SuperDraft
Tim Anderson (1.45x)
Anderson has played well early this season, posting a .296 average with a .519 slugging percentage and a .840 OPS. He owns 4 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 1 RBI. Anderson found plenty of success against left-handed pitching in 2019, as well, recording a .326 average with a .493 slugging percentage, .844 OPS, and .167 ISO. He was better against right-handed pitching last season but owns career .043 wOBA and .012 ISO differentials against lefties.
Anderson faces off against Kris Bubic, which has been outlined in the Jose Abreu recommendation. Anderson is leading off for the Chicago White Sox, and he makes an outstanding option on SuperDraft, where he gets a 1.45x multiplier boost.
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