Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Robbie Ray
Ray struggled in his first start of the season, allowing 3 earned runs over 3.2 innings. Still, he posted 7 strikeouts, totaling 12.1 fantasy points. Ray will move to Ariza tonight, where he was significantly better in 2019. He ended the season with a 3.50 home xFIP to go along with a 3.04 xFIP against left-handed batters. His strikeout rate also increased to 33% in Arizona last season.
Ray gets a tough matchup against the Los Angeles Dodgers, who feature an elite offense. Still, he has enough talent to negate their left-handed bats while piling up strikeouts. Ray is currently a +129 underdog in a game set at 9 runs, giving the Dodgers an implied team total of 4.9 runs. His matchup will keep his ownership low, but Ray has the potential to be the highest-scoring pitching option any time he takes the mound.
Ozzie Albies
Albies has struggled a bit in 2020, hitting for only a .214 average, although he owns 3 extra-base hits (1 home run) and 5 RBIs through 6 games. He’s a player that looked outstanding against left-handed pitching in 2019. He hit for a .389 average with a .685 slugging percentage, 1.099 OPS, and .295 ISO over 149 at-bats against lefties last season. He brings .101 wOBA and .133 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching into this game, as well.
Albies will face off against Ryan Yarbrough, who was surprisingly better against right-handed batters last season. He held them to a .228 average with a .372 slugging percentage and a .265 wOBA. That hasn’t been the case throughout his career, though. Albies will hit second in the Atlanta Braves offense, and he comes with tremendous upside. He’ll likely go overlooked on this slate because of his price, but his upside is undeniable against left-handed pitching.
J.D. Davis
Davis has performed well early this season, posting a .278 average with a .444 slugging percentage and a .794 OPS through 6 games. He continuing a dominant 2019 season, where he hit for a .312 average with a .539 slugging percentage, .913 OPS, and .227 ISO against left-handed pitching. Overall, Davis posted .007 wOBA and .011 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching last season.
He gets a plus matchup against Martin Perez tonight. Perez struggled against right-handed batters in 2019, allowing them to his for a .293 average with a .476 slugging percentage and a .353 wOBA. He also allowed 22 of his 23 home runs to righties. Davis is expected to hit fourth in the New York Mets lineup, and he comes with tremendous home run upside in this game. He may go overlooked cause of some of the other third basemen on this slate, but he makes an elite option for a reasonable price tag.
Christin Stewart
Stewart has been ice cold this season, hitting .077 through 6 games with his only hit being a home run. He wasn’t the most consistent slate season but flashed plenty of upside. In 2019, Stewart hit .232 with a .397 slugging percentage, .702 OPS, and .165 ISO against right-handed pitching. He also owned .085 wOBA and .014 ISO differentials against righties.
Stewart gets an interesting matchup against Brady Singer, who looked outstanding in his first start of the season. He’s a rookie moving up from Double-A, though, suggesting he could struggle to consistently produce throughout the season. Stewart is expected to hit fifth in a Detroit Tigers offense that has been surprisingly good early this season. He isn’t a player that is on most radars, but he’s only $3.1K and comes with plenty of upside.
Trent Grisham
Grisham has gotten off to a hot start this season, posting a .286 average with a .571 slugging percentage and a .971 OPS. He owns two home runs and four RBIs in six games, as well. Grisham saw limited at-bats in 2019 but was at his best against right-handed pitching. He ended the season with a .234 average with a .411 slugging percentage, .745 OPS, and .177 ISO against righties.
Grisham gets a matchup against Kevin Gausman tonight. The latter struggled against hitters from both sides of the plate but allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .265 average with a .459 slugging percentage and a .329 wOBA. Grisham will hit second in the San Deigo Padres lineup, but he will be playing in one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in the MLB. That will help keep his ownership down, but he still possesses more than enough upside to be used in tournaments tonight.
SuperDraft
Hanser Alberto (1.7x)
Alberto has found quiet success early in 2020, hitting for a .375 average with a .438 slugging percentage and a .882 OPS through 4 games. He is a player that looked elite against left-handed pitching in 2019. Alberto posted a .398 average with a .534 slugging percentage, .948 OPS, and .136 ISO against lefties last season. He enters this game with .164 wOBA and .047 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching, as well.
Alberto gets a great matchup against the J.A. Happ tonight. The latter was at his worst against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .268 average with a .503 slugging percentage and a .345 wOBA. Alberto is expected to hit second in the Baltimore Orioles lineup tonight. He’ll get a boost from the ballpark, and his 1.7x multiplier makes him an appealing option on SuperDraft.
