Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Carlos Martinez
Carlos Martinez has been playing out of the bullpen for the St. Louis Cardinals. In 48 games in 2019, he posted a 5-3 record with a 3.98 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. Martinez boasted a 3.67 xFIP and a 3.66 SIERA, as well. He looked outstanding with a 26.5% strikeout rate to go along with a 12.6% swinging-strike rate, as well. Martinez’s strikeout rate is likely to drop a bit in a starter’s role, but he has looked elite throughout his career.
He gets a terrible matchup against the Minnesota Twins, who feature one of the best offenses in the MLB. Martinez is also a +131 underdog in a game set at 10 runs, giving Minnesota an implied team total of 5.5 runs. He isn’t a safe option on this slate, but his matchup will likely keep his ownership down. Martinez comes with elite upside, making him an outstanding tournament option tonight.
Danny Santana
Santana looked great throughout the 2019 season, posting a .283 average with a .534 slugging percentage and a .857 OPS. He recorded 57 extra-base hits (28 home runs), 81 RBIs, and 21 stolen bases in 130 games. Santana has been a slightly more consistent option against right-handed pitching. He posted a .286 average with a .535 slugging percentage, a .858 OPS, and a .249 ISO against righties last season.
Santana gets an outstanding matchup against Merrill Kelly tonight. He struggled against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .274 average with a .431 slugging percentage and a .325 wOBA. He also gave up a .268/.473/.342 line to his opponents on the road. Satana is expected to hit third in the Texas Rangers offense, and he makes a high upside option in a spot that may go overlooked on this slate.
David Fletcher
Fletcher performed well over 154 games in 2019. He posted a .290 average with a .384 slugging percentage and a .734 OPS. Fletcher recorded 40 extra-base hits (6 home runs), 49 RBIs, and 8 stolen bases, as well. He performed well against left-handed pitching in 2019, hitting for a .276 average with a .387 slugging percentage, a .736 OPS, and a .110 ISO. He owns 0.08 wOBA and 0.049 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching, as well.
Fletcher gets a great matchup against Justus Sheffield tonight. He was dominated by right-handed batters in limited innings last season, allowing them to hit for a .328 average with a .500 slugging percentage and a .380 wOBA. Fletcher is expected to lead off for the Los Angeles Angels, and he makes a sneaky option with other elite right-handed bats throughout their lineup.
Shin-Soo Choo
Choo saw plenty of ups and downs last season. He ended the year with a .265 average, .455 slugging percentage, and .826 OPS. He recorded 57 extra-base hits (24 home runs), 61 RBIs, and 15 stolen bases over 151 games. Choo was at his best against right-handed pitching, posting a .280 average with a .494 slugging percentage, .886 OPS, and .214 ISO in 2019. He also enters this game with 0.02 wOBA and 0.026 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
Choo gets a great matchup against Merrill Kelly, which has been outlined in the Danny Santana recommendation. Choo is expected to lead off for Texas tonight. He comes with a solid combination of power and speed, giving him plenty of upside in this matchup.
Michael Brantley
Brantley continues to find success, hitting for a .309 average with a .484 slugging percentage and a .855 OPS in 2019. He posted 65 extra-base hits (23 home runs), 94 RBIs, and 4 stolen bases over 148 games. Brantley also hit for a .323 average with a .549 slugging percentage, a .928 OPS and a .226 ISO against right-handed pitching last season. He boasts 0.07 wOBA and 0.103 ISO differentials against righties, as well.
Brantley gets a terrible matchup against Walker Buehler tonight. He held left-handed batters to a .216 average with a .349 slugging percentage and a .263 wOBA in 2019. With that being said, his advanced metrics suggest he will struggle a bit more against lefties this season. He has also been hittable on the road. Brantley will hit in the heart of the Houston Astros lineup, and he comes with quite a bit of upside. The matchup will keep his ownership low even with his ridiculous price tag.
SuperDraft
Matt Carpenter (1.7x)
Carpenter struggled through 129 games in 2019. He posted a .221 average with a .382 slugging percentage and a .713 OPS. Carpenter recorded 37 extra-base hits (15 home runs), 49 RBIs, and 6 stolen bases last season. He continues to be a more consistent and more powerful option against right-handed pitching, bringing 0.083 wOBA and 0.143 ISO differentials against righties into this game.
Carpenter gets an interesting matchup against Homer Bailey tonight. The latter struggled last year but only allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .216 average with a .375 slugging percentage and a .277 wOBA. He’s a reverse splits pitcher, but Carpenter still comes with quite a bit of upside. He’s expected to hit fifth in the St. Louis Cardinals lineup while getting a major 1.7x boost on SuperDraft.
