Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Wade Miley
Miley found quite a bit of success over 33 starts in 2019. He posted a 14-6 record with a 4.02 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. His xFIP and SIERA sat at 4.52 and 4.80, respectively. Miley recorded a 19.4% strikeout rate to go along with a 9.3% swinging-strike rate. He found more success against left-handed batters, although his advanced metrics suggest he’s relatively similar in strikeout potential against both sides of the plate.
Miley gets a matchup against the Chicago Cubs tonight. They rank as an average team on this slate in terms of strikeouts per at-bat. Miley is currently a +107 underdog in a game set at 10 runs. The Cubs feature an implied team total of 5.2 runs. The slate doesn’t have many great pitching options, making Miley a decent tournament option for a low price tag.
C.J. Cron
Cron saw plenty of ups and downs throughout the 2019 season. He posted a .253 average with a .467 slugging percentage and a .777 OPS over 125 games. Cron posted 49 extra-base hits (25 home runs) and 78 RBIs in those games, as well. He was at his best against left-handed pitching, recording a .326 average with a .636 slugging percentage, a 1.020 OPS, and a .310 ISO against lefties. He brings 0.109 wOBA and 0.121 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching into this game, as well.
Cron gets a great matchup against Mike Montgomery tonight. The latter was a reverse splits pitcher in 2019, but still allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .273 average with a .484 slugging percentage and a .350 wOBA. With that being said, his advanced metrics suggest he’ll see regression to right-handed batters. Cron is expected to hit fourth in the Detroit Tigers lineup tonight. He’s far too cheap on this slate, making him an outstanding option tonight.
Adalberto Mondesi
Mondesi broke out in 2019, hitting for a .263 average with a .424 slugging percentage and a .715 OPS over 102 games. He posted 39 extra-base hits (9 home runs), 62 RBIs, and 43 stolen bases in those games, as well. Mondesi has been a more powerful option against right-handed pitching, but he has found plenty of success against left-handed pitching, as well. He isn’t known for his power, though, as he relies more on his speed to produce upside.
Mondesi gets a plus matchup tonight. He’ll start against Michael Fulmer, who will be the opener for Detroit. It’ll then turn into a bullpen game for what should be one of the worst bullpens in the MLB. Mondesi is expected to hit second in the Kansas City Royals lineup, meaning he’ll get one at-bat against Fulmer before the Detroit bullpen. This game is a bit underpriced for the upside of the players, including Mondesi.
Jorge Soler
Soler is another Kansas City player that is underpriced on this slate. He found quite a bit of success in 2019, posting a .265 average with a .569 slugging percentage and a .922 OPS. Soler recorded 82 extra-base hits (48 home runs), 117 RBIs, and 3 stolen bases over 162 games. He has found plenty of success against left-handed pitching throughout his career but was at his best against righties in 2019.
Soler gets a matchup against the Detroit bullpen, which has already been outlined above. It’s a spot to take advantage of, as Detroit has limited arms that can find reasonable success out of their pen. Soler is expected to hit third in the Kansas City lineup tonight, and they are a sneaky offense on this slate. He’s absurdly priced for his power, making him an elite option in tournaments.
Yoenis Cespedes
Cespedes has struggled with injuries in recent years. He has always flashed elite hitting upside when in the lineup, though. Throughout his career, Cespedes has found more success against right-handed pitching. He boasts a career .279 average with a .502 slugging percentage, a .826 OPS, and a .223 ISO against righties.
Cespedes gets a matchup against Zack Godley, who will be the long reliever in this game. Godley struggled against everyone in 2019, allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .259 average with a .440 slugging percentage and a .344 wOBA. Cespedes is expected to hit fourth for the New York Mets tonight, and he comes with elite upside in an offense that could find plenty of success in this matchup.
SuperDraft
Jonathan Schoop (1.5x)
Schoop played in 121 games in 2019, recording a .255 average with a .471 slugging percentage and a .774 OPS. He posted 47 extra-base hits (23 home runs), 59 RBIs, and 1 stolen base. Schoop was at his best against left-handed pitching, hitting for a .277 average with a .563 slugging percentage, a .917 OPS, and a .286 ISO against lefties in 2019. He also owns 0.131 wOBA and 0.229 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching.
Schoop gets a great matchup against Mike Montgomery tonight. The latter has been outlined above under C.J. Cron. Schoop is expected to hit second in the Detroit Tigers lineup, adding to his upside. Surprisingly, he’s receiving 1.5x his fantasy points on SuperDraft, and he quietly makes an outstanding option in tournaments tonight.
