Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
Steven Matz
Matz enjoyed a solid 2019 season, posting an 11-10 record with a 4.21 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP over 32 games (30 starts). He recorded a 4.33 xFIP and a 4.47 SIERA to go along with a 22.1% strikeout rate and a 9.6% swinging-strike rate. Matz was significantly better at home, though, where his xFIP dropped to 3.79 and his strikeout rate increased to 25.2%. He averaged 16.4 DK points per game in New York as opposed to only 7.1 on the road.
Matz gets a matchup against the Atlanta Braves, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat while ranking as below average in team wOBA. Matz is a small -104 underdog in a game set at 9 runs today. He certainly comes with risky, but he’s a cheap source of upside that will likely go overlooked on another stacked MLB slate.
Josh Bell
Bell is coming off of an outstanding 2019 season, hitting for a .277 average with a .569 slugging percentage and a .936 OPS. He posted 77 extra-base hits with 116 RBIs over 143 games. Bell dominated right-handed pitching, as well, posting a .297 average with a .615 slugging percentage, 1.002 OPS, and .318 ISO against righties. He also recorded 81.8% of his extra-base hits against right-handed pitching last season. It’s no surprise that he enters this game with 0.142 wOBA and 0.153 ISO differentials against righties.
Bell gets a solid matchup against Adam Wainwright today. The latter found success at home last season but struggled against left-handed batters. He allowed lefties to hit for a .288 average with a .503 slugging percentage and a .368 wOBA. Wainwright also recorded a 23.1% HR/FB and a 1.98 HR/9 at home against left-handed batters last season. Bell will hit cleanup for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and he comes with elite upside on this slate.
Wilmer Flores
Flores quietly played well in 89 games for the Arizona Diamondbacks last season. He posted a .317 average with a .487 slugging percentage and a .848 OPS. He also recorded 27 extra-base hits and 37 RBIs in 265 at-bats. Flores has always been better against left-handed pitching, and that was the case again in 2019. He posted a .276 average with a .493 slugging percentage, a .810 OPS, and a .217 ISO against lefties last season. He brings 0.053 wOBA and 0.203 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching into this game.
Flores gets a tough matchup against Alex Wood, but the latter struggled in limited starts last season. He allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .289 average with a .588 slugging percentage and a .382 wOBA in 2019. Wood struggled heavily with home runs, allowing nearly 3.0 HR/9 on the season. Flores is expected to hit second in the San Francisco Giants lineup, and he’s a boom or bust option on this slate.
Brandon Nimmo
Nimmo took a major step back in 2019, hitting for a .221 average with a .407 slugging percentage and a .783 OPS. He posted 20 extra-base hits with 29 RBIs and 3 stolen bases over 69 games. The sample size is small, but Nimmo dominated left-handed pitching last season. He recorded a .375 average with a .700 slugging percentage, a 1.190 OPS, and a .325 ISO. He boasts .208 wOBA and 0.267 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching, as well.
Nimmo gets a tough matchup against Max Fried today. He held left-handed batters to a .231 average with a .365 slugging percentage and a .280 wOBA in 2019. His peripherals suggest he can maintain those numbers, as well. Nimmo is leading off for the New York Mets, though, and will go overlooked because of the lefty/lefty matchup. He isn’t nearly safe enough to be used in cash games but comes with more than enough upside to be used in GPPs on this slate.
Anthony Santander
Santander posted a .261 average with a .476 slugging percentage and a .773 OPS in 2019. He recorded 41 extra-base hits, 59 RBIs, and 1 stolen base in 93 games. Santander recorded a .272 average with a .500 slugging percentage, a .810 OPS, and a .228 ISO against left-handed pitching last season. He boasts 0.08 wOBA and 0.118 ISO differentials against lefties, as well.
Santander gets a great matchup against Martin Perez today. He struggled against right-handed batters in 2019, allowing them to post a .293 average with a .476 slugging percentage and a .353 wOBA. Santander is hitting fourth in the Baltimore Orioles lineup, adding to his upside on this slate. He’s still a bit cheap for his upside, specifically in this matchup.
SuperDraft
Pat Valaika (2x)
Valaika struggled through 40 games last season. He posted a .190 average with a .316 slugging percentage and a .572 OPS. He recorded 7 extra-base hits and 4 RBIs in 79 at-bats. Valaika saw improvements against left-handed pitching, though, hitting for a .238 average with a .452 slugging percentage, .757 OPS, and .214 ISO against lefties. He boasts 0.28 wOBA and 0.316 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching, as well.
Valaika gets a matchup against Martin Perez, who was outlined under the Anthony Santander recommendation. He’s hitting eighth in the Baltimore Orioles lineup, which is less than ideal for fantasy. With that being said, he gets a 2x booster on SuperDraft and comes with quite a bit of upside. Valaika is a player that will go overlooked on this slate, but he’s in a good spot and gets an elite booster.
