Welcome to my first ever edition of Bales’ GPP plays. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP plays for Opening Day. This article will be a small sample of what to expect for the season, as there are only two games tonight. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts and Game Theory articles with access to our Discord, click here.
Joe Musgrove
Musgrove saw plenty of ups and downs in 2019, posting an 11-12 record with a 4.44 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 32 games (31 starts). He also recorded a 4.31 xFIP and a 4.31 SIERA to go along with a 21.9% strikeout rate. Musgrove got better as the season progressed, though, posting a 3.97 xFIP with a 24.6% strikeout rate over the second half of the season. He averaged 20.5 DK points over his last 5 starts in 2019.
Musgrove gets an interesting matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals tonight. They lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat to go along with a below-average team wOBA. Musgrove is a +174 underdog in a game set at 7.5 runs, giving St. Louis an implied team total of 4.4 runs. He isn’t a safe option on this slate but comes with plenty of upside in a decent matchup. Musgrove is also far too cheap for tournaments.
Carlos Santana
Santana enjoyed a solid 2019 season, posting a .281 average with a .515 slugging percentage and a .911 OPS. He recorded 65 extra-base hits (34 home runs) with 93 RBIs and 4 stolen bases over 158 games. Santana was at his best against left-handed pitching, though. On the season, he posted a .324 average with a .551 slugging percentage and a .979 OPS against lefties. He brings 0.155 wOBA and 0.164 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching into this game, as well.
Santana gets a matchup against Danny Duffy tonight. Duffy was slightly worse against left-handed batters but allowed righties to hit for a .249 average with a .439 slugging percentage and a .318 wOBA last season. Santana is expected to hit fourth in the Cleveland Indians lineup, and he’s a player that could go overlooked with a few obvious options at first base tonight.
Ty France
France struggled with a .234 average, .402 slugging percentage, and .696 OPS over 69 games last season. He recorded 16 extra-base hits (7 home runs) and 24 RBIs. With that being said, he’s an outstanding splits hitter, finding significantly more success against left-handed pitching. In those games, he posted a .236 average with a .509 slugging percentage and a .772 OPS against lefties. Furthermore, France boasts 0.196 wOBA and 0.269 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching.
France gets a tough matchup against Madison Bumgarner tonight. Bumgarner struggled against right-handed batters at times throughout 2019. He allowed them to hit for a .258 average with a .456 slugging percentage and a .318 wOBA. His HR/9 nearly doubled to right-handed batters, as well. France is expected to draw the start at DH while hitting sixth in the San Diego Padres lineup. He isn’t a player that gets a lot of recognition, but he does come with more than enough upside to be used on this slate.
Manny Machado
Machado struggled a bit throughout the 2019 season but still posted a .256 average with a .462 slugging percentage and a .796 OPS. He posted 55 extra-base hits (32 home runs), 85 RBIs, and 5 stolen bases over 156 games. He continued to dominate left-handed pitching, though, posting a .315 average with a .685 slugging percentage and a 1.089 OPS. Machado posted a 50% extra-base hit rate against left-handed pitching. He also enters this game with 0.038 wOBA and 0.111 ISO differentials against lefties.
Machado gets a matchup against Madison Bumgarner, who was outlined under the Ty France recommendation. He’s expected to hit third for the San Diego Padres, adding to his upside. Machado could go overlooked because he’s playing in San Diego tonight, but his inconsistent upside at home makes him a solid low-owned tournament option on this slate.
Jordan Luplow
Another year, another Luplow recommendation. He was mainly a platoon bat last season, hitting .276 with a .551 slugging percentage and a .923 OPS over 225 at-bats. Luplow posted 31 extra-base hits (15 home runs), 38 RBIs, and 3 stolen bases, as well. Most importantly, he obliterated left-handed pitching with a .320 average, .742 slugging percentage, and 1.181 OPS. Luplow features ridiculous 0.238 wOBA and 0.439 ISO differentials against lefties.
He gets a matchup against Danny Duffy, which has been outlined under the Carlos Santana recommendation. Luplow is only expected to hit seventh in the Cleveland Indians lineup and there is always the chance he gets pulled when a right-handed pitcher comes out of the pen. These risks should keep his ownership down, but he can score fantasy points in a hurry and makes a solid, yet risky, GPP play.
Austin Hays
Hays only played 21 games in 2019, but he found plenty of success in those contests. He hit .309 with a .574 slugging percentage and a .947 OPS. Hays posted 10 extra-base hits (4 home runs), 13 RBIs, and 2 stolen bases in his limited action. He was significantly better against right-handed pitching in 2019, flashing more consistency and power against righties. That has been the case throughout Hays’ short career, as well. Although a limited sample size, he hit .419 with a .814 slugging percentage and a 1.293 OPS against right-handed pitching.
Hays gets a plus matchup against Nathan Eovaldi, who struggled to produce in 2019. The latter also allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .285 average with a .431 slugging percentage and a .345 wOBA. Hays is expected to lead off for the Baltimore Orioles, allowing him to use either his speed or power to score fantasy points. He’s a bit expensive for his name value, resulting in a situation where we can use him as an elite tournament option.
SuperDraft
Jay Bruce (1.45x)
Bruce was the definition of a tournament option in 2019. He only hit for a .216 average but posted a .523 slugging percentage and a .784 OPS. He recorded 43 extra-base hits (26 home runs), 59 RBIs, and 1 stolen base over 98 games. Surprisingly, Bruce only hit .218 with a .527 slugging percentage and a .779 OPS against right-handed pitching. With that being said, he owns 0.158 wOBA and 0.24 ISO differentials against righties.
Bruce gets a plus matchup against Sandy Alcantara, who is due for regression from last season. He posted a 3.88 ERA in 2019 but also recorded a 5.17 xFIP and a 5.28 SIERA. Alcantara was at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .253 average with a .424 slugging percentage and a .323 wOBA. Bruce is expected to bat cleanup for Philadelphia, adding to his upside on this slate. He’s an outstanding option on SuperDraft, where he gets 1.45x his fantasy points.
