Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP Play. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP play for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts articles with access to our Discord, click here. For a limited time, use the Promo Code MLB2021 to get 25% off of the purchase of a month-long package!
Zack Wheeler
Wheeler looked outstanding in his first season with the Philadelphia Phillies. He posted a 4-2 record with a 2.92 ERA, and a 1.17 WHIP over 11 starts. He also boasted a 3.76 xFIP and a 4.07 SIERA in those starts. Wheeler only posted an 18.4% strikeout rate to go along with a 10.8% swinging-strike rate, suggesting he’s due for positive strikeout regression. He held his opponents to a 3.8% barrel percentage, as well. In limited starts last season, Wheeler found more success on the road, posting a 3.53 xFIP. He owned similar advanced metrics against either handedness, although his strikeout rate increased slightly against right-handed batters.
Wheeler gets an interesting matchup against a struggling Atlanta Braves offense tonight. They lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat while featuring an average offense in terms of team wOBA. Wheeler posted 39.2 fantasy points against them in their first matchup this season. Tonight, he’s a +114 underdog in a game set at 7.5 runs, giving Atlanta an implied team total of 4 runs. Generally, Wheeler would be chalky after his last dominant performance, but I don’t expect that to be the case with some other dominant pitching options cheaper than him. He boasts elite upside, and while he isn’t likely to score 40 fantasy points again tonight, he’s an outstanding tournament option.
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