Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP Play. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP play for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts articles with access to our Discord, click here.
Brandon Woodruff
Woodruff is coming off of an outstanding 2020 season, recording a 3-5 record with a 3.05 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP over 13 starts. His numbers were backed by a 3.29 xFIP and a 4.09 SIERA. Woodruff also boasted 31.1% strikeout and 13% swinging-strike rates last season. Furthermore, he recorded a 49.4% ground ball rate, which will be a key to success in Chicago’s windy stadium. Unsurprisingly, Woodruff found more success on the road in 2020, where he possessed a 3.09 xFIP. He was also at his best against right-handed batters, recording a 3.04 xFIP against them with a 33% strikeout rate.
Woodruff gets an intriguing matchup against the Chicago Cubs today. They rank eighth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat and fourth-last in team wOBA. Woodruff’s a small underdog, although the game total hasn’t been set yet. The wind is blowing out to left at around 12 MPH, which will keep his ownership down. With that being said, if Woodruff is throwing well, he relies heavily on strikeouts and ground balls, which won’ allow the Chicago offense to utilize that wind. There are several elite arms in the mid-range today, including Hyun Jin Ryu, who is likely to garner significantly more ownership than Woodruff. That’s a key to why the latter is an elite tournament option.
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