Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP Play. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP play for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts articles with access to our Discord, click here.
Nick Pivetta
Pivetta looked awful over 5 games last season, posting a 2-0 record with a 6.89 ERA, and a 1.53 WHIP. He posted a 5.19 xFIP and a 4.46 SIERA in those games, as well. Furthermore, in his 3 full seasons prior, Pivetta recorded 4.26, 3.42, and 4.58 xFIPs. He boasts a career 24.5% strikeout rate to go along with a 10.3% swinging-strike rate. Pivetta owns a career 3.74 xFIP at home, and the majority of those games were played in Philadelphia’s hitter-friendly stadium. He’s also been at his best against right-handed batters, recording a career 3.84 xFIP and a career 25.1% strikeout rate against them.
Pivetta gets an interesting matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays tonight. They rank second on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, although they rank as an average offense in team wOBA. Pivetta’s a +108 underdog in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving Tampa Bay the highest implied team total on the slate at 5 runs. Pivetta threw in 2 games for the Boston Red Sox last season, recording 19.7 and 25.1 fantasy points. Although I’m not overly high on Pivetta, I trust three years worth on impressive metrics (for his price) rather than a few bad games in a shortened Covid season. He’s a boom or bust option with a cheap price tag.
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