Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP Play. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP play for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts articles with access to our Discord, click here.
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Kyle Gibson
Gibson’s coming off of a disappointing season for the Texas Rangers. He posted a 2-6 record with a 5.35 ERA, and a 1.53 WHIP over 12 starts. He was due for positive regression, as he also boasted a 4.36 xFIP and a 4.77 SIERA. Gibson ended the 2020 season with 19.3% strikeout and 9% swinging-strike rates. He recorded a 7.2% barrel rate last season, as well. Gibson struggled a bit at home last season, where he posted a 4.59 xFIP. He looked outstanding against right-handed batters, though, holding them to a 3.72 xFIP with a 23.3% strikeout rate.
Gibson gets a tough matchup against the Boston Red Sox tonight. They rank second-last on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while ranking as an above-average offense in team wOBA. Gibson’s a +107 underdog in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving the Red Sox an implied team total of 4.4 runs. He’s looked outstanding in 2021, recording a 3.67 xFIP through 5 games. He posted an xFIP of 3.00 or less in 3 of his 5 games, as well. Gibson’s strikeout rate is up slightly this season, and Boston is expected to use five right-handed batters in their lineup. Gibson will garner some ownership because of the size of the slate, but he’s a solid pitcher that will go under-owned because of his matchup tonight.
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