Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP Play. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP play for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts articles with access to our Discord, click here.
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Adam Wainwright
Wainwright quietly looked fantastic throughout a shortened 2020 season. He posted a 5-3 record with a 3.15 ERA, and a 1.05 WHIP over 10 starts. He boasted a 4.23 xFIP and a 4.39 SIERA, as well. Wainwright recorded 20.6% strikeout and 10.9% swinging-strike rates in 2020. He also held his opponents to a 6.3% barrel rate. Wainwright’s been at his best at home throughout his career, where he boasts a 3.53 xFIP. He’s also been slightly better against right-handed batters, holding them to a 3.59 xFIP throughout his career.
Wainwright gets an interesting matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies tonight. They lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, although they feature a slightly above-average offense in terms of team wOBA. Wainwright’s a +102 underdog in a game set at 8 runs, giving Philadelphia a 4.1 implied team total. He’s due for positive regression, as his 5.03 ERA sits significantly higher than his 3.38 xFIP this season. Wainwright’s strikeout percentage is also up to 26.7% early this season. He’s generally viewed in a negative light at this point in his career, but he still possesses plenty of upside. There are a plethora of great arms on this slate, leaving Wainwright to go overlooked.
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