Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP Play. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP play for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts article with access to our Discord, click here.
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Dallas Keuchel
Kuechel threw well for the Chicago White Sox in a shortened 2020 season. He posted a 6-2 record with a 1.99 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over 11 starts. He recorded a 3.98 xFIP and a 4.57 SIERA in those games, as well. Kuechel isn’t a dominant strikeout option, ending the 2020 season with 16.3% strikeout and 9.8% swinging-strike rates. He held his opponents to a 4% barrel rate, though. Keuchel found more success at home last season, where his xFIP dipped to 3.41 and his strikeout rate increased to 18.1%. He was also at his best against left-handed batters, holding them to a 3.86 xFIP throughout the season.
Keuchel gets an outstanding matchup against the Texas Rangers tonight. They rank second on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking last in team wOBA. Keuchel’s a -164 favorite in a game set at 8 runs, giving the Rangers an implied team total of only 3.5 runs. Keuchel’s struggled this season, failing to score double-digit fantasy points in any of his starts. He’s due for positive regression, though, and could find a few extra strikeouts in this matchup. Normally, someone with Keuchel’s Vegas odds would be chalk, especially on this small of a slate, but his lack of perceived upside will keep his ownership low. If he can’t find strikeouts in this matchup, it may be time to write him off, but he’s a solid option on this smaller slate.
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