Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP Play. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP play for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts articles with access to our Discord, click here.
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JT Brubaker
Brubaker saw mixed results as a rookie for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2020. He recorded a 1-3 record with a 4.94 ERA, and a 1.37 WHIP over 11 games (9 starts). He was a bit unlucky, though, as he owned a 4.14 xFIP and a 4.28 SIERA last season. Brubaker found success, boasting 23.4% strikeout and 11.3% swinging-strike rates. He held his opponents to an 8% barrel rate, as well. Throughout his short career, Brubaker owns a similar xFIP at home and on the road, although his strikeout rate jumps to 26.4% outside of Pittsburgh. He’s also held right-handed batters to a 3.57 xFIP.
Brubaker gets an interesting matchup against the Minnesota Twins tonight. They rank third on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat while ranking as a below-average offense in team wOBA. Brubaker is a +136 underdog in a game set at 8 runs, giving Minnesota an implied team total of 4.5 runs. He’s posted 15+ fantasy points in each of his 3 games, including a 27.3 fantasy point performance against the Milwaukee Brewers. Brubaker’s seemingly taken a step forward his season, and he’s a high upside option that will go overlooked on this large of a slate.
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