Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP Play. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP play for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts articles with access to our Discord, click here.
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Joey Lucchesi
Lucchesi performed well in his last full season (2019) as a pitcher. He posted a 10-10 record with a 4.18 ERA, and a 1.22 WHIP over 30 starts. His numbers were backed by a 4.36 xFIP and a 4.48 SIERA, as well. In 2019, Lucchesi boasted 23% strikeout and 13.8% swinging-strike rates. He also held his opponents to a 6.8% barrel rate. In his final full season with the San Diego Padres, Luchessi recorded a 4.01 xFIP at home, although it’s one of the more pitcher-friendly stadiums in the league. He was at his best against left-handed batters, who he held to a 3.96 xFIP that season.
Lucchesi gets a matchup against the Chicago Cubs, who posted 16 runs against David Peterson and company last night. Still, they rank second on the small slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking third-last in team wOBA. Lucchesi’s a -119 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, giving the Cubs an implied team total of 4.4 runs. He’s a pitcher that’s due for some regression, as his 5.40 ERA early this season doesn’t match his 3.71 xFIP. His strikeout rate is also up to 28.6%, suggesting he comes with plenty of upside. Unfortunately, he’ll garner ownership because of the small slate, but Lucchesi isn’t expected to be one of the chalkiest options tonight. He’s an outstanding tournament option.
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