Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP Play. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP play for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts articles with access to our Discord, click here.
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Jorge Lopez
Lopez struggled with the Kansas City Royals and Baltimore Orioles in 2020. He posted a 2-2 record with a 6.69 ERA, and a 1.49 WHIP over 10 games (6 starts). He was due for positive regression, though, as he ended the season with a 4.89 xFIP and a 4.84 SIERA. Lopez struggled with 16.1% strikeout and 8.6% swinging-strike rates last season. He ended the season with a 9.2% barrel rate, as well. Throughout his career, Lopez has been slightly better on the road, where he owns a 4.59 xFIP and a 19.2% strikeout rate. He’s also performed better against right-handed batters, who he’s held to a 4.54 xFIP throughout his career.
Lyles gets a great matchup against the Texas Rangers tonight. They lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking second-last in team wOBA. Lopez is a +111 underdog in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving the Rangers an implied team total of 4.5 runs. Lopez has struggled through two starts this season, although he’s due for positive regression. His 11.42 ERA sits significantly higher than his 4.39 xFIP and 4.20 SIERA. He boasts a 22% strikeout rate this season, as well. Lopez is the cheapest pitcher on the slate, and he’s a solid tournament option tonight.
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