Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP Play. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP play for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts articles with access to our Discord, click here.
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Jordan Lyles
Lyles is coming off of a terrible season for the Texas Rangers. He posted a 1-6 record with a 7.02 ERA, and a 1.56 WHIP over 12 games (9 starts). His struggles were backed by a 5.92 xFIP and a 5.62 SIERA. Lyles struggled with 13.5% strikeout and 6.7% swinging-strike rates last season. He also allowed a 7.8% barrel rate. Lyles found slightly more success at home throughout his career, although his home/road splits aren’t significant. He’s a much better pitcher against right-handed batters, who he held to a 3.92 xFIP to go along with a 19% strikeout rate over 10+ seasons in the MLB.
Lyles gets an interesting matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays tonight. They rank fourth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat while featuring an above-average team wOBA for this smaller slate. Lyles is a +167 underdog in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving the Rays an implied team total of 5 runs tonight. He’s seen mixed results early this season, scoring 25.8 and 0.4 fantasy points in his 2 starts. His advanced metrics look significantly better this season, as he drastically changed his pitch mix from throwing curveballs to more sliders. There’s certainly risk involved with playing Lyles, but it’s a smaller slate tonight, and he comes with tremendous upside for his price tag and ownership.
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