Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP Play. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP play for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts articles with access to our Discord, click here. For a limited time, use the Promo Code MLB2021 to get 25% off of the purchase of a month-long package!
Jeff Hoffman
Hoffman last drew a start for the Colorado Rockies in 2019. He posted a 2-6 record with a 6.56 ERA, and a 1.59 WHIP over 15 starts that season. He owned a 5.43 xFIP and a 5.11 SIERA in those contests, as well. Hoffman recorded 21.6% strikeout and 9.2% swinging strike rates in 2019. He struggled with a 12.4% barrel percentage, though. Surprisingly, Hoffman found similar success at home (Coors Field) and on the road in his last full season as a starter. He was significantly better against left-handed batters, who he held to a 4.79 xFIP with a 25.6% strikeout rate.
Hoffman gets a plus matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight. They rank fourth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat while ranking last in team wOBA. Hoffman’s currently a -132 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving the Diamondbacks an implied team total of 4.6 runs. He looked outstanding in his first start against the St. Louis Cardinals, posting 23.5 fantasy points in 5 innings. Hoffman’s advanced metrics back his impressive start, as well. Although I don’t expect him to suddenly become a dominant pitcher, he’s a player that boasts plenty of upside, especially in this matchup.
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