Welcome to another edition of Bales’ Top GPP Play. In this article, I will outline my favorite MLB GPP play for today’s games. If you want all of my core plays along with our staff’s Final Thoughts articles with access to our Discord, click here.
Brad Keller
Keller looked outstanding in limited starts in 2020. He posted a 5-3 record with a 2.47 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP over 9 starts. He was due for some regression, though, posting a 4.33 xFIP and a 4.82 SIERA. The young pitcher only recorded a 16.3% strikeout rate to go along with an 8.4% swinging-strike rate, which is a bit concerning. Keller was dominant at home, where he boasted a 3.66 xFIP over 33 innings. His strikeout rate jumped to 19.2% in Kansas City, as well. As is the case with most right-handed pitchers, he was better against right-handed batters, holding them to a 3.63 xFIP with a 20% strikeout rate.
Keller gets an elite matchup against the Texas Rangers today. Texas leads the slate in strikeouts per at-bat while ranking last in team wOBA. Keller is a -157 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, giving the Rangers an implied team total of 4 runs today. He quietly averaged 24.9 fantasy points per game at home last season, scoring 18+ fantasy points in each of his 5 home games. Keller will be helped by the weather, as well, as it’s only expected to be in the 40s today in Kansas City. On a slate with several elite arms, Keller is far too cheap for the matchup, making him an outstanding salary relief option in tournaments.
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