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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Houston Astros
The Houston Astros continue to make up the “Chalk Stack,” as they feature one of the best offenses in the MLB. They currently lead the league in team batting average and OPS, while also ranking fourth in the MLB in runs scored and home runs through 142 games. Houston has been at their best at home, where they are hitting for a .281 average with a .498 slugging percentage and a .858 OPS through 70 games. They are averaging 5.8 runs and 3.8 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The Astros are currently -396 favorites in a game set at 9 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.2 runs tonight.
Houston gets a great matchup against Yusei Kikuchi, who has struggled through 28 starts this season. In those starts, he owns a 6-9 record with a 5.36 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP. Those numbers are backed by a 5.15 xFIP and a 5.14 SIERA, as well. Kikuchi has given up 35.5% fly ball and 19.5% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has also allowed his opponents to post a 37.9% hard hit rate to go along with an 18.5 soft hit rate this season. He brings 16.5% strikeout and 8.8% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. Kikuchi has been at his worst against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .292 average with a .527 slugging percentage and a .364 wOBA. He has given up a .265/.538/.347 line to left-handed batters, as well. Kikuchi has also allowed his opponents to post a .288/.506/.352 line against him on the road this season. The Astros aren’t going to come cheap, but they are the top stacking option on this slate.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
St. Louis Cardinals
The St. Louis Cardinals have seen plenty of offensive ups and downs throughout the 2019 season, ranking 20th in the MLB in runs scored, 24th in home runs, 19th in team batting average, and 22nd in OPS through 141 games. They have been more consistent in St. Louis, but still boast a .241 average with a 423 slugging percentage and a .735 OPS through 69 road games. They are also averaging 4.6 runs and 3.2 extra-base hits per game in those contests. The Cardinals are -148 favorites in a game set at 9 runs, and they own an implied run total of 5.0 runs tonight.
Steven Brault will be taking the mound for the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight. He has performed well in 2019, posting a 4-3 record with a 3.88 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP through 21 games (15 starts). With that being said, he owns a 5.03 xFIP and a 5.08 SIERA, suggesting he’s due for regression. Brault has given up a 34.7% fly ball rate, although he has held his opponents to a 9.4% HR/FB rate. He also has recorded 37.1% hard hit and 18.2% soft hit rates in 2019. He enters this game with 19.3% strikeout and 9.3% swinging strike rates, as well. Brault has struggled against right-handed batters in 2019, allowing them to hit for a .266 average with a .421 slugging percentage and a .336 wOBA. He has given up a .221/.368/.297 line in Pittsburgh this season, but he also owns a 5.09 xFIP in those games, suggesting he’ll see regression at home. St. Louis features an offense that is loaded with right-handed batters, making them the perfect stacking option against Brault.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Jeff Hoffman
Hoffman has struggled through 10 starts in 2019, posting a 1-5 record with a 7.35 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP. He is due for some positive regression, though, as he owns a 5.17 xFIP and a 4.85 SIERA. Hoffman has struggled most with home runs, giving up 42.4% fly ball and 22% HR/FB rates. He has also recorded 37.1% hard hit and 16.8% soft hit rates this season. Hoffman brings 21.9% strikeout and 9.9% swinging strike rates into this game. He’s a +142 underdog in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of 4.8 runs.
Hoffman gets a great matchup against the San Diego Padres, who rank third on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. They also rank in the bottom-seven in team wOBA. Hoffman has been slightly better against left-handed batters, holding them to a .292 average with a .539 slugging percentage and a .373 wOBA. He also has held his opponents to a .274/.548/.377 line on the road this season. Hoffman is far from a good pitcher, but he’s cheap and comes with strikeout potential on a slate without many solid cheap options.
Hidden Gem: Value Hitter
Asdrubal Cabrera
Cabrera has been playing well recently, posting a .306 average with a .528 slugging percentage and a .887 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 4 extra-base hits (2 home runs) and 13 RBIs over that span. Cabrera also boasts a 45% hard hit rate to go along with a 96 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He brings 0.013 wOBA and 0.096 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game.
Cabrera gets a plus matchup against Julio Teheran, who enters this game with a 5.18 xFIP and a 5.12 SIERA. Surprisingly, he has been better against left-handed batters, as they are only hitting for a .208 average with a .300 slugging percentage and a .288 wOBA against him. With that being said, he owns a 6.00 xFIP against lefties, suggesting he’ll see plenty of regression against them soon. Cabrera is expected to hit second in the Washington Nationals lineup, and he can be used in all leagues tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
