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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Houston Astros
The Houston Astros boast one of the best offenses in the MLB in 2019, leading the league in team batting average. They also rank fourth in the MLB in runs scored and home runs, while ranking second in OPS through 141 games. Houston has found more success at home, where they are hitting for a .281 average with a .499 slugging percentage and a .858 OPS through 69 games. They are averaging 5.8 runs and 3.8 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The Astros are currently -230 favorites in a game set at 10.5 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.5 runs.
Houston gets a great matchup against Tommy Milone, who has struggled through 19 games (6 starts) this season. In those games, he owns a 3-8 record with a 4.90 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. He has also posted a 4.67 xFIP and a 4.26 SIERA through 93.2 innings in 2019. Milone has struggled with 42.9% fly ball and 18.3% HR/FB rates this season. He has also given up a 35.6% hard hit rate to go along with a 15.5% soft hit rate. He brings 20.9% strikeout and 10.2% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. Milone has been a reverse splits pitcher into 2019, allowing left-handed batters to post a .260 average with a .567 slugging percentage and a .353 wOBA. He has also given up a .251/.490/.312 line to right-handed batters, though. Milone is due for some regression against righties, though, as he owns a 5.01 xFIP against them. He’s also due for a bit of regression on the road this season, as he has only given up a .221/.422/.276 line on the road in 2019, but he possesses a 4.41 xFIP in those innings.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins possess arguably the best offense in the MLB, leading the league in runs scored, home runs, and OPS through 140 games. They also rank third in the MLB in runs scored in those contests. The Twins have found more success on the road in 2019, but they still boast a .266 average with a .487 slugging percentage and a .824 OPS through 68 home games. They are also averaging 5.5 runs and 4.0 extra-base hits per game in those contests. Minnesota is a -165 favorite in a game set at 10.5 runs, and they feature one of the higher implied run totals on the slate at 6.0 runs.
The Twins get a matchup against Adam Plutko, who has seen mixed results throughout the 2019 season. He enters this game with a 6-4 record to go along with a 4.53 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP through 16 games (15 starts). He has struggled a bit more than that, though, as he owns a 5.67 xFIP and a 5.31 SIERA in those games. Plutko has also given up 47.7% fly ball and 14.9% HR/FB rates this season. He has also allowed his opponents to post a 32.6% hard hit rate, while recording an 18.1% soft hit rate in 2019. He has posted 16.1% strikeout and 8.4% swinging strike rates, as well. Plutko has been at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .286 average with a .528 slugging percentage and a .354 wOBA. He has given up a .232/.463/.303 line to right-handed batters, as well. Furthermore, Plutko has been at his worst on the road, where his opponents own a .286/.495/.345 line against him. The Twins can be considered as a second “Chalk Stack,” for cash games, but they likely aren’t going to be owned as high as the Houston Astros.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers feature one of the highest upside offenses in the MLB, ranking fifth in the league in runs scored and OPS, third in home runs, and eighth in team batting average through 142 games. They have been at their best in Los Angeles, where they possess a .267 average with a .489 slugging percentage and a .832 OPS. They are averaging 5.4 runs and 3.6 extra-base hits per game through 73 home contests. They are currently -286 favorites in a game set at 8.5 runs, and they own an implied run total of 5.5 runs tonight.
Jeff Samardzija will be taking the mound for the San Francisco Giants tonight. He has thrown well through 28 starts in 2019, recording a 9-11 record with a 3.61 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. With that being said, he’s due for regression, as he also owns a 4.91 xFIP and a 4.81 SIERA. Samardzija has given up 40.9% fly ball and 12.8% HR/FB rates this season. He has also allowed his opponents to post a 40.8% hard hit rate against him, while recording only a 14.6% soft hit rate. He enters this game with 19.9% strikeout and 9.1% swinging strike rates, as well. Samardzija has been significantly worse against left-handed batters, allowing them to record a .244 average with a .488 slugging percentage and a .329 wOBA. He has also given up a .222/.411/.287 line to his opponents on the road in 2019. Los Angeles has the potential to dominate any pitcher in the MLB at home, and Samardzija could start to see some of that regression in this game.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Pablo Lopez
Lopez has seen plenty of ups and downs throughout the 2019 season, posting a 5-7 record with a 4.89 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP through 16 starts. He’s due for positive regression, though, as he owns a 4.21 xFIP and a 4.24 SIERA. He has held his opponents to 32.1% fly ball and 15.2% HR/FB rates. He has also posted 34.7% hard hit and 18.5% soft hit rates this season. Lopez has also been at his best at home, where he owns a 3.82 xFIP to go along with a 24.7% strikeout rate. He’s a -129 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of only 4.0 runs.
Lopez gets a plus matchup against the Kansas City Royals, who don’t strikeout at the highest rate on the slate, but also rank in the bottom-seven of the slate in team wOBA. Lopez has been significantly better against right-handed batters, holding them to a .208 average with a .377 slugging percentage and a .272 wOBA. He has also held his opponents to a .201/.320/.239 line at home this season. There are plenty of salary relief pitching options on this slate, and Lopez can be considered in all leagues in this matchup.
Hidden Gem: Value Hitter
Yasmani Grandal
Grandal is only hitting for a .152 average with a .455 slugging percentage and a .803 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns four extra-base hits (three home runs) and five RBIs over that span. Grandal possesses 57% hard hit and 42% fly ball rates to go along with a 97 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He brings 0.006 wOBA and 0.025 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching into this game, as well.
Grandal gets a tough matchup against Cole Hamels, who enters this game with a 4.29 xFIP and a 4.50 SIERA. He has been slightly worse against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .256 average with a .416 slugging percentage and a .313 wOBA. Grandal is expected to hit second in the Milwaukee Brewers lineup, and he can be considered in all leagues for his current price tag.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
