What’s up, Karma Nation!? I have some great news for you! If you’re thinking about joining the Karma Nation, use Promo Code “TOUCHDOWN” to get 20% of ANY package for the lifetime of that subscription! Click here for our packages.
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox feature one of the best offenses in the MLB, leading the league in team batting average. They also rank third in the MLB in runs scored, fifth in home runs, and fourth in OPS through 139 games. Boston has been at their best at home, where they boast a .285 average with a .506 slugging percentage and a .860 OPS through 70 games. They are averaging 5.9 runs and 4.5 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The Red Sox are currently -146 favorites in a game set at 11 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.1 runs.
Boston gets a matchup against Martin Perez, who has posted a 9-6 record with a 4.89 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP through 27 games (24 starts). He has also recorded a 4.61 xFIP and a 4.95 SIERA in those games. Perez has held his opponents to 28.8% fly ball and 15.1% HR/FB rates this season. He has given up a 34.2% hard hit rate to go along with a 16.8% soft hit rate in 2019. He brings 19.1% strikeout and 10.2% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. Perez has been at his worst against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .283 average with a .463 slugging percentage and a .347 wOBA. He has also allowed his opponents to post a .278/.407/.334 line on the road this season. While Perez has looked outstanding against left-handed batters, his xFIP jumps to 4.31 on the road against lefties. The Red Sox feature a plethora of dominant right-handed batters in their lineup, though, and they make up the safest stacking option on this slate.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Houston Astros
The Houston Astros also possess one of the better offenses in the MLB, ranking fifth in the league in runs scored, fourth in home runs, and second in team batting average and OPS through 140 games. The Astros have found more success at home, where they are hitting for a .282 average with a .498 slugging percentage and a .858 OPS through 68 games. They are also averaging 5.8 runs and 3.8 extra-base hits per game in those contests. Houston is a -241 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs, and they feature one of the higher implied run totals on the slate at 5.9 runs.
The Astros get a matchup against Marco Gonzales, who has thrown well through 29 starts this season. In those starts, he owns a 14-11 record with a 4.30 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. He’s due for regression, though, as he possesses a 5.04 xFIP and a 4.98 SIERA in those starts, as well. Perez has given up a 37.7% fly ball rates this season, although he has held his opponents to an 8.7% HR/FB rate. He has allowed his opponents to post a 34.4% hard hit rate to go along with a 17.3% soft hit rate in 2019. He also enters this game with 17.5% strikeout and 7.9% swinging strike rates. Gonzales has been a reverse splits pitcher this season, allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .318 average with a .462 slugging percentage and a .344 wOBA. He has given up a .258/.414/.304 line to right-handed batters, as well. Gonzales has also given up a .280/.484/.342 line to his opponents on the road, as well. Houston features one of the highest upside offenses on the slate, and they should have no problems finding success against a weak left-handed pitcher. They can also be considered in cash games tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Austin Pruitt
Pruitt has seen mixed results through 11 games (1 start) in 2019, posting a 2-0 record with a 4.78 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. He’s due for positive regression, though, as he also owns a 3.77 xFIP and a 3.91 SIERA this season. Pruitt has held his opponents to a 27.5% fly ball rate, although he has given up a 20% HR/FB rate. He enters this game with 38.9% hard hit and 18.6% soft hit rates, as well. Pruitt also brings 21.3% strikeout and 11.1% swinging strike rates into this game. He’s a -178 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of only 3.9 runs.
Pruitt gets a great matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays, who rank fourth on this slate in strikeouts per at-bat. They also feature an average team wOBA. Surprisingly, Pruitt has been better against left-handed batters, holding them to a .239 average with a .380 slugging percentage and a .282 wOBA. He has held his opponents to a .272/.449/.318 line at home, as well. Pruitt is cheap enough to be considered in all leagues on this slate.
Hidden Gem: Value Hitter
Ji-Man Choi
Choi has been playing well recently, posting a .333 average with a .636 slugging percentage and a .997 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns five extra-base hits (two home runs) and six RBIs over that span, as well. Choi possesses 48% hard hit and 33% fly ball rates to go along with a 97 MPH exit velocity in those contests. He also brings 0.071 wOBA and 0.078 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game.
Choi gets a matchup against Trent Thornton, who enters this game with a 5.05 xFIP and a 3.95 SIERA through 27 starts. He has been at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .267 average with a .500 slugging percentage and a .345 wOBA. He has also given up a .276/.461/.343 line on the road this season. Choi is hitting fourth in the Tampa Bay Rays lineup, and he can be considered in all leagues.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
