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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves have found plenty of offensive success throughout the 2019 season, ranking sixth in the MLB in runs scored, fifth in home runs, ninth in team batting average, and seventh in OPS through 139 games. Atlanta has been at their best at home, where they are hitting for a .268 average with a .479 slugging percentage and a .828 OPS through 70 games. They are averaging 5.5 runs and 3.6 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The Braves are -203 favorites in a game set at 11 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.6 runs.
Atlanta gets a matchup against Wilmer Font and T.J. Zeuch tonight. Font will serve as the opener, while Zeuch will play the role of the long reliever. The latter has thrown in 13 games in Triple-A, posting a 4-3 record with a 3.69 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. He has struggled a bit more than that, though, as he also owns a 5.37 xFIP in those starts. Zeuch was also able to hold his opponents to 21.1% fly ball and 11.5% HR/FB rates in Triple-A. Zeuch also brings an 11.6% strikeout rate into this game. He’s a right-handed pitcher, suggesting he’ll struggle more against left-handed batters. With that being said, Zeuch could struggle against hitters from both sides of the plate in the MLB. He was a first round pick in 2016, but currently sits outside of the top-15 on the Toronto Blue Jays prospect list. There’s very little reason to believe he’ll find MLB success, especially this early in his career in this matchup. Keep in mind, Font is far from an elite pitcher, as well, and Atlanta should find success against anyone Toronto puts on the mound tonight.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers feature one of the highest upside offenses in the MLB, ranking fifth in the MLB in runs scored and OPS, third in home runs, and eighth in team batting average through 140 games. The Dodgers have been at their best at home, where they boast a .268 average with a .489 slugging percentage and a .834 OPS through 71 games. They are also averaging 5.4 runs and 3.7 extra-base hit per game in those contests. Los Angeles is a -287 favorite in a game set at 10 runs, and they feature one of the highest implied run totals on the slate at 6.5 runs.
The Dodgers get an elite matchup against Chi Chi Gonzalez, who has struggled through nine games (eight starts). In those games, he has posted an 0-6 record with an 8.08 ERA and a 1.82 WHIP. He has also struggled with a 6.10 xFIP and a 6.47 SIERA in those games. Gonzalez has held his opponents to a 29.8% fly ball rate, while giving up a 24.3% HR/FB rate. He has also allowed his opponents to post a 44.1% hard hit rate against him to go along with a 15% soft hit rate. He brings 11.8% strikeout and 6.7% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. Gonzalez has been at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .311 average with a .607 slugging percentage and a .435 wOBA. He has also given up a .289/.518/.360 line to right-handed batters this season. Gonzalez has also allowed his opponents to hit for a .260/.510/.366 line on the road in 2019. He’s due for regression on the road, though, as his road xFIP sits at 6.10 through 26 road innings. Los Angeles possesses as much upside as offense on this slate, and they are an offense that can be considered in all leagues tonight.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
St. Louis Cardinals
The St. Louis Cardinals have seen mixed results through 137 games in 2019, ranking 21st in the MLB in runs scored and team batting average, 24th in home runs, and 23rd in OPS. They have been better in St. Louis, where they possess a .253 average with a .398 slugging percentage and a .728 OPS. They are averaging 4.7 runs and 2.6 extra-base hits per game through 69 home games. The Cardinals are currently -278 favorites in a game set at 8.5 runs, and they own an implied run total of 5.5 runs tonight.
Dereck Rodriguez will be taking the mound for the San Francisco Giants. He has recorded a 5-7 record with a 5.49 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP through 22 games (13 starts) in 2019. He has also struggled with a 5.37 xFIP and a 5.47 SIERA in those games. Rodriguez has allowed 33.8% fly ball and 16.5% HR/FB rates this season. He has also given up a 42.1% hard hit rate, while recording only a 12.5% soft hit rate in 2019. He enters this game with 14.4% strikeout and 8.0% swinging strike rates, as well. Rodriguez has been slightly worse against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .283 average with a .481 slugging percentage and a .335 wOBA. He has also given up a .250/.478/.350 line to left-handed batters this season. Rodrgiuez has allowed his opponents to post a .255/.462/.330 line against him on the road. St. Louis isn’t an offense that ever features a ton of ownership, but they could find plenty of success in this matchup.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Mitch Keller
Keller has struggled through seven starts in 2019, posting a 1-3 record with an 8.62 ERA and a 1.98 WHIP. He’s due for positive regression, though, as he also owns a 4.14 xFIP and a 4.11 SIERA. Keller has posted 36.7% fly ball and 13.9% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has recorded 37.4% hard hit and 16.2% soft hit rates this season, as well. Keller brings 26.8% strikeout and 12.1% swinging strike rates into this game. He’s a -167 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of only 3.9 runs.
Keller gets an elite matchup against the Miami Marlins, who rank fifth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat and fourth last in team wOBA. Keller has struggled against both left- and right-handed batters. With that being said, he owns a 4.35 and a 4.00 xFIP against left- and right-handed batters, respectively, suggesting he has the potential to find success against either side of the plate. Keller can be considered in all leagues in this matchup.
Hidden Gem: Value Hitter
Miguel Cabrera
Cabrera has caught fire recently, posting a .343 average with a .486 slugging percentage and a .896 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he owns three extra-base hits (one home run) and four RBIs. Cabrera also boasts 61% hard hit and 30% fly ball rates with a 99 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He brings 0.107 wOBA and 0.133 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching into this game, as well.
Cabrera gets a matchup against Mike Montgomery, who enters this game with a 4.35 xFIP and a 4.70 SIERA. He has allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .263 average with a .464 slugging percentage and a .339 wOBA. Cabrera is expected to hit third in the Detroit Tigers offense, and he makes a solid option for a low price tag tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
