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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox feature one of the best offenses in the MLB. They currently rank fourth in the league in runs scored and team batting average, 11th in home runs, and fifth in OPS through 156 games. Boston has been at their best at home, but they are still hitting for a .259 average with a .443 slugging percentage and a .773 OPS through 78 road games. They are averaging 5.4 runs and 3.4 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The Red Sox are -194 favorites in a game set at 11 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.5 runs.
Boston will see Edinson Volquez as an opener, but he will give way to Ariel Jurado, who will play the role of the long reliever. Jurado has posted a 7-10 record with a 5.73 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP through 31 games (18 starts). He has also recorded a 4.99 xFIP and a 5.10 SIERA this season. Jurado has held his opponents to a 31.4% fly ball rate, although he has given up a 15.9% HR/FB rate in 2019. He has allowed his opponents to post a 45.2% hard hit rate against him, while recording only a 14.5% soft hit rate this season. He brings 15.2% strikeout and 7.2% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. Jurado has been at his worst against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .320 average with a .557 slugging percentage and a .378 wOBA. He has also given up a .276/.471/.336 line to left-handed batters in 2019. Furthermore, Jurado has allowed his opponents to post a.328/.554/.391 line against him in Texas this season. There likely isn’t one “Chalk Stack” on this slate, but Boston is the safest option tonight.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Cleveland Indians
The Cleveland Indians have seen plenty of offensive ups and downs through 156 games, ranking 18th in the MLB in runs scored, 19th in home runs, 15th in team batting average, and 14th in OPS. The Indians have found more success away from home, where they possess a .257 average with a .443 slugging percentage and a .773 OPS through 75 games. They are also averaging 4.8 runs and 3.5 extra-base hits per game in those contests. Cleveland is a -300 favorite in a game set at 9 runs tonight, and they feature an implied run total of 5.9 runs.
The Indians get a great matchup against Hector Santiago, who has struggled through 17 games (2 starts) this season. In those games, he has recorded a 1-1 record with a 5.65 ERA and a 1.81 WHIP. He has also struggled with a 5.96 xFIP and a 5.38 SIERA in 2019. Santiago has given up a 46% fly ball rate this season, although he has held his opponents to a 12.5% HR/FB rate. He has posted 38.6% hard hit and 18.2% soft hit rates this season, as well. He also enters this game with 21.3% strikeout and 10.7% swinging strike rates. Santiago has struggled against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .333 average with a .639 slugging percentage and a .446 wOBA. He has given up a .263/.425/.335 line to right-handed batters in 2019, as well. Santiago has been at his worst on the road this season, where his opponents have recorded a .324/.535/.403 line against him. The Indians are still playing for a Wild Card spot, meaning they’ll be playing inspired baseball tonight.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays have struggled offensively at times this season, as they rank 22nd in the MLB in runs scored, ninth in home runs, 30th in team batting average, and 23rd in OPS through 157 games. They have found success in Toronto, where they are hitting for a .230 average with a .437 slugging percentage and a .736 OPS. They are averaging 4.5 runs and 3.4 extra-base hits per game through 76 home games, as well. The Blue Jays are currently a -119 favorite in a game set at 10 runs, and they own an implied run total of 5.2 runs on this slate tonight.
Dylan Bundy will be taking the mound for the Baltimore Orioles. He has seen mixed results in 2019, posting a 6-14 record with a 4.89 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP through 29 starts. He also owns a 4.56 xFIP and a 4.54 SIERA this season. Bundy has struggled with 36.9% fly ball and 16.8% hard hit rates. He has also given up a 31.4% hard hit rate, while recording a 16.9% soft hit rate in 2019. He possesses 23.2% strikeout and 12.7% swinging strike rates this season, as well. Bundy has struggled against both left- and right-handed batters. He’s allowing lefties to hit for a .276 average with a .448 slugging percentage and a .329 wOBA, while also giving up a .248/.489/.337 line to right-handed batters. He has also been at his worst in Baltimore, where his opponents boast a .287/.501/.352 line against him this season. The Blue Jays are an offense that generally goes overlooked because of their lack of consistency, but they come with tremendous upside, which can be seen by their home run total throughout the season.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Madison Bumgarner
Bumgarner has thrown extremely well in 2019, posting a 9-9 record with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP through 33 starts. He also owns a 4.34 xFIP and a 4.18 SIERA this season. Bumgarner has given up a 41.5% fly ball rate, although he has held his opponents to an 11.6% HR/FB rate. He has recorded 42.9% hard hit and 14.5% soft hit rates in 2019. Bumgarner brings 23.8% strikeout and 11.3% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. He is a -168 favorite in a game set at 8 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of only 3.5 runs tonight.
Bumgarner gets a great matchup against the Colorado Rockies, who rank as an above average team in terms of strikeouts per at-bat on this slate. Bumgarner has been at his best against left-handed batters, holding them to a .205 average with a .327 slugging percentage and a .237 wOBA. He has also held right-handed batters to a .257/.447/.314 line in 2019. Bumgarner has only given up a .211/.350/.253 line to his opponents in San Francisco, as well. He’s a solid option in all leagues tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Hitter
Billy McKinney
McKinney is hitting for a .231 average with a .462 slugging percentage and a .762 OPS over his last 10 games. He has posted two home runs and five RBIs in those games. Over the last 15 days, McKinney boasts 46% hard hit and 60% fly ball rates with a 96 MPH exit velocity. He brings 0.031 wOBA and 0.022 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game, as well.
McKinney gets a great matchup against Dylan Bundy, who has already been outlined above. He’s expected to lead off for the Toronto Blue Jays, and he’s far too cheap on this slate. McKinney can be considered in all leagues tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
