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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins possess an elite offense, leading the MLB in home runs through 153 games. They also rank second in the league in runs scored and team batting average, while also ranking third in the MLB in OPS. Minnesota has been better on the road, but they are still hitting for a .264 average with a .479 slugging percentage and a .814 OPS through 78 home games. They are averaging 5.4 runs and 3.9 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The Twins are -270 favorites in a game set at 10.5 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.7 runs.
Minnesota gets an elite matchup against Eric Skoglund, who has struggled through only four games (two starts) this season. In those games, he has posted an 0-1 record with an 8.36 ERA and a 1.79 WHIP. He also possesses an 8.48 xFIP and a 7.70 SIERA this season. Skoglund has struggled with a 47.4% fly ball rate in 2019, although also owns an 11.1% HR/FB rate. He has given up a 50.9% hard hit rate, while recording only a 14% soft hit rate. He brings only 3% strikeout and 5% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. Skoglund has been at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .300 average with a .600 slugging percentage and a .421 wOBA. He has also given up a .313/.542/.383 line to right-handed batters this season. Skoglund has been better on the road in 2019, where he has held his opponents to a .208/.417/.303 line. Keep in mind, Skoglund has only thrown in 14 innings this season, meaning the sample size is extremely limited. With that being said, there’s nothing to suggest he’ll find success in this particular matchup.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Houston Astros
The Houston Astros are arguably the best offense in the MLB, leading the league in team batting average and OPS. They also rank third in the MLB in runs scored and home runs through 153 games. Houston has found more success at home, where they possess a .283 average with a .511 slugging percentage and a .872 OPS through 78 games. They are also averaging 6.0 runs and 3.9 extra-base hits per game in those contests. Houston is currently a -352 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, and they feature one of the highest implied run totals on the slate at 6.0 runs.
The Astros get a plus matchup against Jaime Barria, who has posted a 4-9 record with a 5.95 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP through 17 games (11 starts). He has also recorded a 5.11 xFIP and a 4.68 SIERA this season. Barria has struggled mightily with 45% fly ball and 17.5% HR/FB rates. He has also given up a 40.8% hard hit rate to go along with an 11.2% soft hit rate this season. He also enters this game with 21.3% strikeout and 9.7% swinging strike rates. Barria has been a reverse splits pitcher this season, allowing right-handed batters to post a .291 average with a .639 slugging percentage and a .392 wOBA. He has given up a .238/.413/.308 line to left-handed batters, as well. Barria has also been at his worst on the road, where his opponents boast a .296/.608/.396 against him in 2019. He’ll face off against arguably the best offense in the MLB, who has found tremendous success at home this season. Houston is another stack that can be considered in cash games, as they are a relatively safe stacking option tonight.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers are another elite offense, as they rank fifth in the MLB in runs scored and OPS, fourth in home runs, and 11th in team batting average through 153 games. They have been at their best in Los Angeles, where they boast a .262 average with a .481 slugging percentage and a .819 OPS. They are averaging a healthy 5.4 runs and 3.6 extra-base hits per game through 78 home games this season. The Dodgers are -337 favorites in a game set at 8.5 runs tonight, and they own an implied run total of 5.7 runs on this slate.
Peter Lambert will be taking the mound for the Colorado Rockies tonight. He has struggled through 18 starts this season, recording a 3-6 record with a 6.99 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP. He also has posted a 5.23 xFIP and a 5.53 SIERA in those starts. Lambert has held his opponents to a 27.3% fly ball rate, although he has given up a 20.5% HR/FB rate this season. He has allowed his opponents to post a 38.7% hard hit rate, while posting an 18.7% soft hit rate, as well. He also owns 13.4% strikeout and 7% swinging strike rates. Lambert has been at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .333 average with a .597 slugging percentage and a .411 wOBA. He has given up a .302/.538/.372 line to right-handed batters in 2019. Furthermore, Lambert has struggled outside of Colorado, where his opponents have recorded a .340/.549/.401 line this season. The Dodgers offense features a plethora of elite left-handed batters, and they should find plenty of success in this matchup.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Anibal Sanchez
Sanchez has thrown well through 28 starts in 2019, posting a 9-8 record with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. He is due for regression, though, as he owns a 5.17 xFIP and a 5.12 SIERA. Sanchez has given up a 39.8% fly ball rate, although he has held his opponents to a 10.7% HR/FB rate. He also owns 30.5% hard hit and 19.2% soft hit rates in 2019. Sanchez brings 19% strikeout and 10.2% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. He’s a -228 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of only 3.6 runs.
Sanchez gets an elite matchup against the Miami Marlins, who strikeout at an average rate on this slate. They also rank last on the slate in team wOBA. Sanchez has been at his best against right-handed batters, holding them to a .225 average with a .378 slugging percentage and a .282 wOBA. He has held his opponents to a .219/.379/.280 line on the road this season, as well. Even though he’s due for regression, Sanchez can be considered in all leagues in this matchup.
Hidden Gem: Value Hitter
Khris Davis
Davis has been playing well recently, posting a .270 average with a .514 slugging percentage and a .855 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns three home runs and nine RBIs over that span, as well. Davis also boasts 39% hard hit and 48% fly ball rates with a 96 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He brings 0.105 wOBA and 0.103 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching into this game, as well.
Davis gets a matchup against Mike Minor, who enters this game with a 4.57 xFIP and a 4.47 SIERA through 30 starts. He has given up a .237 average with a .379 slugging percentage and a .292 wOBA to right-handed batters this season. More importantly, he owns a 4.66 xFIP against righties, suggesting that’s where the majority of his regression will come from. Davis is expected to hit sixth in the Oakland A’s lineup, and he makes an outstanding option tonight.
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