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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
New York Mets
The New York Mets have seen plenty of ups and downs throughout the 2019 season, ranking 14th in the MLB in runs scored, 12th in home runs and OPS, and 10th in team batting average through 150 games. New York has been better on the road, where they are hitting for a .264 average with a .440 slugging percentage and a .770 OPS through 76 games. They are averaging 5.0 runs and 3.5 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The Mets are -139 favorites in a game set at 13.5 runs, giving them an implied run total of 7.4 runs.
New York gets an elite matchup against Tim Melville, who has struggled through five starts in 2019. In those starts, he owns a 2-2 record with a 5.16 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP. He has also struggled with a 5.59 xFIP and a 5.34 SIERA this season. Melville has given up 43.3% fly ball and 20.7% HR/FB rates. He has also allowed his opponents to post a 37.7% hard hit rate, while recording only a 14.5% soft hit rate in 2019. He brings 19.8% strikeout and 12.1% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. Melville has been at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .333 average with a .604 slugging percentage and a .410 wOBA. He has also given up a .211/.474/.325 line to right-handed batters this season. Melville has struggled significantly more in Colorado (limited innings), where his opponents have posted a .405/.833/.510 line against him. There’s very little reason to believe Melville will find success in the MLB, and both sides of this game can be considered in cash games, although I favor New York.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins feature one of the best offenses in the MLB, leading the league in home runs through 150 games. They also rank second in the MLB in runs scored and team batting average, while also ranking third in OPS. The Twins have found more success on the road, but they still possess a .264 average with a .478 slugging percentage and a .813 OPS through 75 games. They are also averaging 5.4 runs and 3.9 extra-base hits per game in those contests. Minnesota is a -199 favorite in a game set at 11 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 6.6 runs tonight.
The Twins get an outstanding matchup against Ross Detwiler, who has recorded a 2-5 record with a 6.79 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP through 15 games (9 starts). He has also posted a 5.22 xFIP and a 5.07 SIERA this season. Detwiler has held his opponents to a 31% fly ball rate, although he has given up a 28.1% HR/FB rate. He has given up a 38.7% hard hit rate to go along with a 16.1% soft hit rate this season. He also enters this game with 15.9% strikeout and 6.7% swinging strike rates. Detwiler has struggled most against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .333 average with a .612 slugging percentage and a .423 wOBA. He has also given up a .237/.475/.299 line to left-handed batters this season. Furthermore, Detwiler has allowed his opponents to post a .403/.753/.500 line to his opponents on the road this season. He has also struggled to pitch deep into games, meaning the Minnesota Twins are likely to see plenty of the Chicago bullpen, which currently ranks in the bottom half of the MLB. If you’re looking to avoid Coors in cash games, Minnesota is a relatively safe stacking option.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Chicago White Sox
The Chicago White Sox have struggled offensively this season, ranking only 26th in the MLB in runs scored and OPS, 25th in home runs, and 11th in team batting average through 150 games. They have found more success outside of Chicago, where they boast a .258 average to go along with a .408 slugging percentage and a .719 OPS. They are also averaging 4.5 runs and 2.9 extra-base hits per game through 76 road contests. The White Sox are currently +186 underdogs in a game set at 11 runs, and they own an implied run total of 4.5 runs tonight.
Martin Perez will be taking the mound for the Minnesota Twins tonight. He has seen mixed results through 29 games (26 starts) in 2019, posting a 10-7 record with a 4.89 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP. He also owns a 4.74 xFIP and a 5.04 SIERA this season. Perez has held his opponents to a 29.8% fly ball rate to go along with a 14.9% HR/FB rate. He enters this game with 33.4% hard hit and 17.2% soft hit rates, as well. He brings 18.6% strikeout and 10% swinging strike rates into this game. Perez has struggled against right-handed batters in 2019, allowing them to hit for a .279 average with a .464 slugging percentage and a .345 wOBA. He has also given up a .270/.447/.328 line at home in 2019. The White Sox have caught fire recently, and they quietly make a solid stacking option on a slate with 14 games tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Gio Gonzalez
Gonzalez has thrown well through 16 starts in 2019, posting a 2-2 record with a 4.01 ERAR and a 1.35 WHIP. He also owns a 4.68 xFIP and a 5.11 SIERA in those starts. Gonzalez has held his opponents to 32.7% fly ball and 12.7% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has also posted 34.1% hard hit and 13.5% soft hit rates this season. Gonzalez brings 20.4% strikeout and 10.4% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. He’s a -138 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of only 4.0 runs.
Gonzalez gets a matchup against the San Diego Padres, who rank fifth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. They also feature a below average team wOBA. Gonzalez has been significantly better against left-handed batters, holding them to a .150 average with a .267 slugging percentage and a .218 wOBA. He has also held his opponents to a .109/.442/.313 line at home this season. Gonzalez will be the long reliever for Milwaukee tonight, and he’s a solid tournament option in this matchup.
Hidden Gem: Value Hitter
Eric Thames
Thames is only hitting for a .161 average with a .323 slugging percentage and a .620 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns three extra-base hits (one home run) and two RBIs over that span, as well. Thames could be in line for a breakout, though, as he boasts 48% hard hit and fly ball rates with a 98 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He brings 0.067 wOBA and 0.125 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game, as well.
Thames gets a matchup against Chris Paddack, who has posted a 4.14 xFIP and a 3.93 SIERA this season. He has been worse against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .217 average with a .415 slugging percentage and a .286 wOBA. He has also given up a .226/.427/.299 line to his opponents on the road. Thames is expected to hit fifth in the Milwaukee Brewers lineup, and he makes a solid option on this slate tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
