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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
New York Mets
The New York Mets have seen mixed offensive results throughout the 2019 season, ranking 15th in the MLB in runs scored, 12th in home runs and OPS, and 11th in team batting average through 149 games. New York has been significantly better on the road, where they are hitting for a .265 average with a .440 slugging percentage and a .770 OPS through 75 games. They are averaging 5.0 runs and 3.5 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The Mets are -152 favorites in a game set at 13.5 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 7.6 runs.
New York gets a great matchup against Antonio Senzatela, who has struggled through 22 starts this season. In those starts, he has posted a 9-10 record with a 6.87 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP. He has also struggled with a 5.20 xFIP and a 5.62 SIERA. Senzatela has held his opponents to a 23.2% fly ball rate, although he has given up a 16.9% HR/FB rate. He has also allowed his opponents to record a 36.6% hard hit rate, while recording only an 18.7% soft hit rate in 2019. He brings 12.2% strikeout and 6.7% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. Senzatela has been at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .349 average with a .567 slugging percentage and a .414 wOBA this season. He has also given up a .277/.433/.329 line to right-handed batters in 2019. Furthermore, Senzatela has struggled in Colorado this season, where his opponents boast a .304/.487/.355 line against him. The Mets are playing for playoffs at this point, and they should come out firing in this series.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Oakland A’s
The Oakland A’s have found plenty of offensive success through 150 games this season. They currently rank seventh in the MLB in runs scored, fifth in home runs, 16th in team batting average, and 10th in OPS. The A’s have featured a better offense on the road in 2019, but they still boast a .246 average with a .449 slugging percentage and a .777 OPS through 75 home games. They are also averaging 5.0 runs and 3.5 extra-base hits per game in those contests. Oakland is a -286 favorite in a game set at 10 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 6.5 runs tonight.
The A’s get a plus matchup against Glenn Sparkman tonight. He has struggled through 28 games (20 starts) this season, posting a 4-11 record with a 5.94 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP in those games. He also owns a 5.79 xFIP and a 5.57 SIERA this season. Sparkman has given up 39.5% fly ball and 16.6% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has also allowed his opponents to post a 40% hard hit rate to go along with a 12.6% soft hit rate. He enters this game with 13.3% strikeout and 7.7% swinging strike rates, as well. Sparkman has struggled more against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .289 average with a .555 slugging percentage and a .378 wOBA. He has allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .298/.483/.339 line to him, as well. Sparkman has struggled on the road in 2019, where his opponents possess a .332/.623/.418 line this season. Similarly to the Mets, Oakland is still playing for Wild Card, while the Kansas City Royals have been eliminated. The A’s will likely get a bit of ownership in this game, as well, although I do they can be used in tournaments, as the majority of ownership will likely sit in the Colorado game.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Zach Davies
Davies has thrown well this season, posting a 9-7 record with a 3.77 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP through 28 starts. With that being said, he’s due for regression, as he also owns a 5.22 xFIP and a 5.45 SIERA. Davies has held his opponents to 35.8% fly ball and 12.1% HR/FB rates in 2019. He also owns 37.6% hard hit and 15% soft hit rates this season. Davies brings 15.2% strikeout and 7.3% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. He’s a -157 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of only 4.0 runs.
Davies gets a plus matchup against the San Diego Padres, who rank as an above average team on this slate in strikeouts per at-bat. They also rank second last on the slate in team wOBA. Davies has been slightly better against right-handed batters, holding them to a .271 average with a .419 slugging percentage and a .314 wOBA. He has also held his opponents to a .258/.484/.334 line at home this season. Davies isn’t a safe option, but there are limited salary relief pitchers on this slate, making him one of the better options.
Hidden Gem: Value Hitter
Miguel Rojas
Rojas has been playing well recently, posting a .293 average with a .341 slugging percentage and a .667 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns two extra-base hits, five RBIs, and two stolen bases over that span. Rojas has also recorded 43% hard hit and 36% fly ball rates to go along with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He brings 0.019 wOBA and 0.018 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching into this game, as well.
Rojas gets a matchup against Robbie Ray, who has posted a 3.77 xFIP and a 4.04 SIERA through 30 starts this season. He has been at his worst against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .243 average with a .461 slugging percentage and a .335 wOBA. Ray has also given up a .240/.462/.326 line to his opponents at home this season. Rojas is expected to lead off for the Miami Marlins, and he’ll help you fit in Coors on this smaller slate.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
