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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Colorado Rockies
The Colorado Rockies have found plenty of offensive success this season, ranking ninth in the MLB in runs scored, 22nd in home runs, sixth in team batting average, and 10th in OPS through 148 games. Colorado has been at their best at home, where they possesses a .301 average with a .524 slugging percentage and a .885 OPS through 73 games. They are averaging 6.1 runs and 4.3 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. The Rockies are -105 favorites in a game set at 13 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on this slate at 6.6 runs.
Colorado gets a great matchup against Eric Lauer, who has seen plenty of ups and downs throughout 27 games (26 games this season). He has posted an 8-8 record with a 4.41 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in those starts. He also owns a 4.71 xFIP and a 4.72 SIERA this season. Lauer has recorded 37% fly ball and 12.3% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has also given up a 41.7% hard hit rate to go along with an 18.2% soft hit rate. He brings 20.2% strikeout and 7.8% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. Lauer has been at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .333 average with a .518 slugging percentage and a .383 wOBA. He has also given up a .252/.412/.301 line to right-handed batters this season. Lauer has struggled more on the road, as well, where his opponents are hitting for a .276/.457/.331 line against him. The Rockies will likely feature quite a bit of ownership, but both sides of this game can be used in cash games, as the San Diego Padres are also relatively cheap on this slate.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Houston Astros
The Houston Astros feature arguably the best offense in the MLB, leading the league in team batting average and OPS. They also rank third in the MLB in runs scored and fourth in home runs through 149 games. The Astros have been better at home this season, but they are still hitting for a .267 average with a .475 slugging percentage and a .818 OPS through 73 road games. They are also averaging 5.3 runs and 3.9 extra-base hits per game in those contests. Houston is a -321 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs tonight, and they feature an implied run total of 6.3 runs.
The Astros get a matchup against Mike Montgomery, who has struggled a bit through 30 games (10 starts) this season. Overall, he owns a 3-8 record with a 4.77 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP. He has also posted a 4.28 xFIP and a 4.60 SIERA in those games. Montgomery has held his opponents to a 24.5% fly ball rate, although he has given up a 23.7% HR/FB rate. He has also allowed his opponents to post a 43.3% hard hit rate against him, while recording only a 13.1% soft hit rate. He enters this game with 18.2% strikeout and 9.7% swinging strike rates. Montgomery has been a reverse splits pitcher, allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .451 average with a .746 slugging percentage and a .500 wOBA. He has also given up a .277/.468/.344 line to right-handed batters in 2019. Montgomery has been better at home, but he’s still allowing his opponents to post a .260/.353/.293 line against him in that situation. Montgomery is due for regression against right-handed batters, and Houston feature an offense that can get to the best of pitchers, let alone someone with the talent level of Montgomery.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Oakland A’s
The Oakland A’s have flashed tremendous offensive potential through 148 games this season. They currently rank seventh in the MLB in runs scored, fifth in home runs, 16th in team batting average, and ninth in OPS. The A’s have found more success away from home this season, where they boast a .254 average with a .453 slugging percentage and a .780 OPS. They are averaging 5.7 runs and 3.6 extra-base hits per game through 73 games outside of Oakland. The A’s are currently -123 favorites in a game set at 10.5 runs, and they own an implied run total of 5.5 runs tonight.
Minor Minor will be taking the mound for the Texas Rangers. He has thrown extremely well this season, posting a 13-8 record with a 3.08 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP through 29 starts. He’s due for regression, though, as he owns a 4.52 xFIP and a 4.43 SIERA. Minor has given up a 40% fly ball rate, while holding his opponents to a 11.1% HR/FB rate. He also enters this game with 34.3% hard hit and 19% soft hit rates. He brings 23.6% strikeout and 11.3% swinging strike rates into this game, as well. Minor has been slightly worse against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .250 average with a .396 slugging percentage and a .301 wOBA. He has also given up a .257/.359/.299 line to his opponents at home this season. Minor is also due for regression against right-handed batters, adding to the upside of the Oakland A’s tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Tyler Glasnow
Glasnow has looked elite this season, posting a 6-1 record with a 2.15 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP through nine starts this season. He has also recorded a 2.99 xFIP and a 3.28 SIERA in those games. Glasnow has held his opponents to 31.7% fly ball and 10.5% HR/FB rates. He has also held his opponents to a 29.2% hard hit rate, while recording a 22.5% soft hit rate. Glasnow brings 31.3% strikeout and 12.1% swinging strike rates into this game. He’s currently a -142 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs, although he likely can’t get the win in this game.
Glasnow gets an interesting matchup against the Los Angeles Angels, who don’t strikeout at the highest rate, but also don’t feature an elite offense. Glasnow has been better against left-handed batters, holding them to a .184 average with a .237 slugging percentage and a .202 wOBA. He has held his opponents to a .157/.213/.172 line on the road in 2019, as well. Glasnow is only expected to throw around 50 pitches as an “opener” in this game, but he has the potential to hit value at his current price tag on DraftKings. He should strictly be considered in deep tournaments.
Hidden Gem: Value Hitter
Khris Davis
Davis has seen plenty of ups and downs throughout the 2019 season, and he’s hitting for a .205 average with a .462 slugging percentage and a .700 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 4 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 13 RBIs in those contests. Davis also boasts 45% hard hit and 41% fly ball rates to go along with a 95 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He brings 0.087 wOBA and 0.095 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching into this game, as well.
Davis gets a matchup against Mike Minor, who has already been outlined above. He’s expected to hit sixth in the Oakland A’s offense, and he comes with a surprisingly low price tag. He’ll benefit from playing in Texas tonight, but Davis may be best suited for tournaments on this slate.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
